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If the Democrats shove Obama to the head of their presidential heap in a moment of delirium, they can kiss off 170 electoral votes before the first ballot is cast. That's the number of electoral votes in the south and the border states. That turf is still mostly white, conservative, male, pro war, anti-big government, vehemently opposed to any political tilt to minorities, and heavily influenced by ultra conservative bible belt fundamentalism. That has been the bread and butter ticket to the White House for GOP presidents Nixon, Reagan, Bush Sr. and Bush Jr. It will be the same for a GOP centrist-conservative again in 2008.
Unlike Obama, Clinton has phenomenal national name recognition. She can raise tons of money. She's morphed into a stateswoman, a seasoned centrist politician. She's the consummate party insider. But she's still, well Hillary Clinton, and though top cat Republicans are licking their wounds over their midterm debacle, she's still their made-in-heaven balm. Clinton is a living, breathing wedge issue. As with choosing Obama, the Democrats can also kiss the south and the border states goodbye with her at the top of their ticket.
The talk of an Obama and Clinton showdown, or even more preposterous an Obama and Clinton ticket (not sure in which order) has captured the imagination of some who think, as Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice recently mused, that America is ready to elect a black president. Others, and that includes Clinton, think America is ready to elect a woman president. This is more delusion. Of course, when pollsters ask voters about the importance of gender and race when they vote for president, anybody that doesn't wear a white sheet or sport a Nazi swastika tattoo will swear that they don't vote color or sex. After all who wants to come off looking and sounding like a bigot these days? Yet even at the risk of the gender bigotry tag, far more voters in a 2005 CNN poll said they were "more likely" to cast a vote against Clinton than for her.
In any case, it's a far different story when voters step into the privacy of the booth. Color and gender still count, and count big for many.
The Democrats are convinced that they are within striking distance of snatching the White House, and that Clinton and Obama are the best, or at least the best known politicians, and their brightest stars for now. A shining star looks pretty in the sky. But in earthly voting booths it's a far different matter. If either one, or even more disastrously for the Democrats both, are the presidential candidates, their shine will tarnish fast. Clinton and Obama are good to get the tongues wagging, but that's about all.
Comments? Send a letter to the editor.Albion Monitor January
22, 2007 (http://www.albionmonitor.com) All Rights Reserved. Contact rights@monitor.net for permission to use in any format. |