SERBIA BACK TO THE CROSSROADS AFTER MILOSEVIC'S DEATH

by Vesna Peric Zimonjic

(IPS) BELGRADE -- Serbia faces serious choices about its future after the death of former leader Slobodan Milosevic brought old issues out of the shadows and back in the open.

"Serbia stands on the crossroads, it has to make tough choices, and they will come at a very high cost," analyst Slobodan Antonic told IPS. "This nation has European Union (EU) membership as a target, but also many unresolved issues -- cooperation with the war crimes tribunal, Montenegro's independence and the status of Kosovo."

Milosevic died of heart failure in the detention unit of the International Criminal Tribunal for former Yugoslavia (ICTY) March 11. He was accused of genocide and war crimes against non-Serbs in the 1990s wars of disintegration of former Yugoslavia.

Milosevic was ousted in 2000 after a decade in power. The new authorities handed him over to the United Nations-founded court in June 2001, and the trial against him started in February 2002. It was closed without sentence last week following his death.

But the events surrounding Milosevic's death, and his private funeral last Saturday broadcast by international and domestic media, brought the spotlight back on him, almost as if his five-year absence never occurred.

Serbia remains deeply divided over Milosevic's role in the wars. The old Serbian nationalists have seen a recent revival, prompting harsh reactions home and abroad.

The EU Council of Ministers has expressed strong support for Serbian people "in their quest to come to terms with the legacy of (the) Milosevic regime." This will help them move forward toward the family of European nations where they belong, the council said in a statement.

Serbia has entered Stabilization and Association Agreement talks (SAA) with the EU. The next round is set for the beginning of April.

But the council also stressed that "full cooperation" with ICTY is expected so that the SAA negotiations are not disrupted. It spoke of an urgent need for Serbia to take "decisive action to ensure that all remaining fugitive ICTY indictees, notably Radovan Karadzic and Ratko Mladic, are brought to justice."

The EU has set April 5 as the date for the handovers and said no SAA talks will be held unless this is achieved.

But analysts say the death of Milosevic and the suicide by one of the prosecution's most significant witnesses, Milan Babic, only a week before Milosevic's death have ruined trust in the ICTY.

"So far, in the 'carrot and stick' policy, Serbia has seen only sticks and no carrots whatsoever," analyst Djordje Vukadinovic told IPS. "The promise of continued talks is too small for the government to justify arrests and handovers of the most wanted. There is no saying what Serbia will get in return."

Serbs have been looking for a relaxing of the strict visa regime for travel to the EU, but there is little sign of that. Trade and economic cooperation with the EU have brought little comfort for most.

Serbian officials decline to comment on pressures for handover of the remaining indictees. But their statements to local media indicate that no hasty arrests of Karadzic and Mladic can be expected, even at the price of suspended negotiations with the EU.

Senior official tasked with cooperation with the ICTY Rasim Ljajic said Monday that "the compromized credibility of the ICTY will have effects, although the government will do everything in its power to achieve full cooperation with the tribunal."

Deputy Prime Minister Miroljub Labus, who heads the team negotiating with the EU, has said that "the next round (beginning of April) will be only a technical one." He came closest among officials to saying that no arrests will be possible by April 5.

The next stumbling block for Serbia is the referendum for the independence of tiny Montenegro on May 21. The nation of 650,000, smaller sister of Serbia in the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro, is most likely to vote for independence from the joint state.

Serbian authorities openly dislike that idea. "The idea of togetherness (of Serbia and Montenegro) is a noble idea," Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica said in a recent public address.

"Kostunica does not want to go into history as someone who lost part of the joint state," analyst Dragan Antonic told IPS. "Besides, the threat of losing Kosovo looms as well."

The United Nations sponsored talks on the status of Kosovo, the ethnic Albanian-populated southern province of Serbia run by the UN administration since 1999, have continued through the events surrounding Milosevic's death.

Ethnic Albanians want nothing less than independence, while Serbia stands for "broad autonomy." The talks did not bring the two sides any closer.

"Kosovo, by far, is the toughest issue," Antonic said. "There is no political leader among Serbs willing to sign its leaving."