In his dramatic announcement on government television Feb. 1, 2005, after he ousted his own prime minister, King Gyanendra called for "all those who believe in democracy and peace" to unite "at a time when the country is in the grip of terrorism."
Since then, this small nation, wedged between economic giants India and China, has seen bitter rivals in seven political parties forge an unlikely alliance -- against the monarch's rule. The people watched those parties ink an "understanding" with Maoist rebels despite threats that they could also be labeled "terrorists," and heard the international community repeatedly urge the king to sit for peace talks with the two other players in this three-sided impasse.
Instead, the monarch stuck to his plan for local elections in 58 towns on Feb. 8 followed by parliamentary elections in 2007 and a return to multiparty democracy within three years.
But even the first goal now appears elusive. The party alliance, which took some 90 percent of votes in the last parliamentary polls, has boycotted the municipal vote. And the Maoists appear to have already fulfilled their promise to disrupt the election by murdering one candidate Jan. 24 and shooting and wounding another on Monday.
On Tuesday, they battled with soldiers and police in the western town of Palpa. Twenty policemen and 50 rebels died, and 140 police were missing, according to initial media reports.
More than 600 election hopefuls withdrew their names from contention last Saturday, many of them claiming not to have registered in the first place. Other candidates, including in the country's most secure hub, the Kathmandu Valley, are now staying in army or police quarters for protection.
"There is no more election now; this is a committee," says former Kathmandu mayor Keshab Sthapit, who considered but decided against running for office. "I had a proper team set up -- these people have no teams. Where are their plans, visions? There are no choices," he added in an interview in his home in the city center.
Sthapit says the small party he leads decided to contest the election to defeat the royalists. But it reversed that stand because the government appeared ready to portray him as the palace candidate. "If they painted me with that label I wouldn't be able to wash it off for years," he said.
The former mayor was also unnerved by the daily phone calls from Maoists warning him not to contest, the reason he gave up his post in 2004.
Last year, a vice chairman of the king's hand-picked council of ministers declared that the army had seriously weakened the rebels, who launched their uprising from the impoverished western hills almost exactly 10 years ago.
Earlier in 2005, an army spokesman estimated the rebels' strength at 6,000-7,000 hard-core fighters, 20,000-25,000 militia and about 100,000 sympathizers.
About 13,000 people have been killed since the insurgents launched their war, local human rights group INHURED said in January, most of them innocent villagers.
In September, the Maoists, who say they are fighting to end monarchy and deliver justice to disadvantaged groups such as Dalits (so-called "untouchables") in this officially Hindu kingdom, declared a three-month unilateral ceasefire. That fueled rumors that peace talks would follow.
But the government dismissed the one-month ceasefire extension, and right after it expired Jan. 4, the Maoists unleashed a series of bombings and attacks on police and government targets. Next they astonished observers with a coordinated set of assaults around Kathmandu on Jan. 14 that killed a dozen policemen.
Applauding the monarch on Feb. 1, 2005, was Rajendra Khadga, an administrator working at an international non-governmental organization (INGO). Like many Nepalis, particularly wealthier and educated Kathmandu residents, he was happy to see the king sideline the constantly bickering political leaders, whose biggest achievement since the 1990s peoples' revolution appeared, to many, to be growing their own bank accounts.
Today Khadga is disillusioned. "We don't see how the king is different. He's exactly like the politicians -- saying one thing and doing another."
But he says the past year has been positive in one way: "We always thought the monarchy was the solution but now we know that it's not."
King Gyanendra declared in a televised speech Wednesday morning that "the Nepalese people have experienced the nation grow in confidence and (their) self-respect restored within a short span of one year, with the cloud of pessimism dissipating."
But many others still remain pessimistic, including those seen as palace supporters. Last week, China, which had described Nepal's political crisis as an "internal matter," said, in what experts called a significant departure, that it "hopes all parties in Nepal can narrow their differences through dialogue."
Many people here have started asking if the international community has done enough to pressure the players to forge a peace plan. India, Britain and the United States earlier suspended lethal military aid, but King Gyanendra appears to have shrugged that off as a nuisance and turned to cultivating ties with rival nations like China and Pakistan.
The monarch also constantly reminds world leaders that he too is "fighting terrorism," a declaration that seems to be especially sensitive in Washington.
But while local activists geared up for a giant opposition rally in central Kathmandu on Wednesday afternoon, the United States also signaled that it is tiring of the king's intransigence, sending the chief of the U.S. Pacific Command, Adm. William J. Fallon, to Kathmandu on Wednesday.
His visit is "to convey serious concern by the U.S. Government at the situation in Nepal, including both the threat posed by the Maoist insurgency and the king's decision just one year ago to sideline Nepal's political parties and establish rule from the palace," said a press release.
Sthapit, a long-time supporter of the moderate Marxist-Leninist wing of the Communist Party of Nepal, says the king's opponents -- political parties, civil society, "even football clubs" -- must come together under a nonpartisan banner if they want to restore democracy on their own terms.
"In the districts they are ready, but the Kathmandu Valley is not ready. Once this valley comes out in support, the royalty will be finished. Because once people here come to the streets, they will fight to the end," he added.
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February 2, 2006 (http://www.albionmonitor.com)
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