Burma Prepares For Regime Turnover

by Larry Jagan

(IPS) -- Burma's top military leaders are planning a massive shake-up in the army and government in the coming weeks, according to diplomats and close watchers of the reclusive country.

The country's military ruler, Gen. Than Shwe, is also expected to stand down as the junta leaders pass on power to the next generation of generals.

The planned changes are said to be intended to prepare the army for the next phase in the country's move toward political reform and the introduction of a civilian administration.

The National Convention is set to resume drafting the new constitution before the end of the year and put to a referendum, with elections to be held within the next year.

The changes in government and the army are the most dramatic since the military seized power 17 years ago. The top general is reportedly planning to give up at least one of the three key posts he holds -- chairman of the State Peace and Development Council (as the junta calls itself), supreme commander of the army and defense minister.

"We expect Than Shwe to relinquish his position as defense minister in the forthcoming reshuffle," said a senior Southeast Asian diplomat who has regular contact with the Burmese regime.

Than Shwe recently told the visiting Thai army's supreme commander, Gen. Chaisit Shinawatra, that he would retire soon and that Gen. Thura Shwe Mann would take over as the country's leader in due course.

There are increasing doubts about the senior general's health. Six months ago he had a very mild stroke, but has recovered. Dr. Kyaw Myint, the health minister and Than Shwe's personal physician, visits him every day to monitor his medical condition, according to family friends.

Time appears to be catching up with the 75-year-old senior general, according to diplomats who recently met him. When he met the visiting Malaysian foreign minister, Syed Hamid Albar, in early October the general could not say more than a few words before gasping for breath and wheezing.

Than Shwe is known to suffer from hypertension and is a diabetic. "He's subject to frequent diabetic rages when his sugar levels get out of control," a Burmese army doctor recently told IPS.

This may have prompted the senior general to take a back seat for the time being. But while he may even retire as the SPDC chairman, he is unlikely to give up the post of supreme commander of the army.

"Instead he'll remain the gray eminence behind the throne, along the lines of the Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping in the years before his death," said the independent Burmese analyst Win Min, who is based in Chiang Mai, Thailand.

Gen. Thura Shwe Mann is tapped to replace Gen. Maung Aye as the army's commander-in-chief, paving the way for him to take the reins of power sometime next year.

"Than Shwe has withdrawn from involvement in the day-to-day government of the country and Maung Aye has effectively taken over the former prime minister, Khin Nyunt's, role of running Burma," said a senior Asian diplomat based in Rangoon.

In recent weeks, the second-most powerful general, Maung Aye, has dominated the front pages of the government-controlled newspapers with Than Shwe increasingly less prominent. "Maung Aye's mug is everywhere in the Burmese media -- a clear sign that he has strengthened his influence and control within the junta," according to a senior Western diplomat based in Rangoon.

But others diplomats and analysts believe this is only a ploy by the senior general until he is ready to resume his central role and become the country's first president under the new constitution that is expected to be adopted early next year.

"Than Shwe is only giving Maung Aye enough rope to hang himself," according to a Southeast Asian diplomat who closely follows events in Rangoon.

It is clear that the country's economy is in dire straits. Inflation is spiraling out of control. An acute shortage of diesel fuel in the past few weeks has forced prices to rise astronomically and feed inflation, especially the cost of imported consumer goods. "Prices in the supermarket have doubled since the beginning of the month," a Rangoon house-wife, Cho Cho, complained to IPS.

Maung Aye is being allowed to run things for the time being and take the blame for any future mess. Than Shwe will then re-emerge from the shadows, according to Thai military intelligence.

"The National Convention will have drawn up a new constitution by the end of the year and it will be put to a referendum in early 2006," said a senior Chinese diplomat. Elections are likely before the end of next year, according to a senior ethnic community leader from northern Burma.

Beijing believes Gen. Than Shwe intends to stand down to become the civilian president under the new constitution. "He wants to be president for life," a senior military source close to him said.

To prepare for these momentous political changes, Burma's top leaders are planning to hand over control of the military to the next generation of army officers. Gen. Thura Shwe Mann will head the new triumvirate of military leaders, supported by the prime minister Gen. Soe Win and Secretary One, Gen. Thein Sein.

But diplomats warn this group of generals lacks the manners and intelligence of their superiors.

"These men are uncouth, uneducated and only know how to bark orders," said a former Indian diplomat who has been based in Rangoon previously and knows the new generals well.

This new generation of military leaders is even less likely than their predecessors to give up power. So the chances of significant political reform, and even the release of the pro-democracy leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, remain a distant hope.