Burma's Hardline Generals Now In Control Of Country

by Larry Jagan

(IPS) BANGKOK -- A major shake-up of Burma's cabinet over the weekend sends a signal to the outside world that military hardliners have strengthened their control over the country.

Over the weekend, Burma's military leaders axed Foreign Minister Win Aung and his deputy Khin Maung Win and replaced them with two little known military officers without any diplomatic experience.

Lately, rifts within Burma's top military rulers have been growing ever wider. For months now there has been an impasse amongst the country's top generals over how to handle international criticism and pressure to introduce political reform.

Now the hardliners around Burma's supreme leader, Than Shwe, have moved to oust the pragmatists around the prime minister, Gen Khin Nyunt.

The former foreign minister Win Aung was a close confidant of Khin Nyunt. His replacement, Maj Gen Nyan Win -- currently deputy head of the military training college -- is a Than Shwe loyalist.

In the face of growing international pressure, including sanctions, and persistent demands for the immediate release of the pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, Burma's top general has opted for the military's traditional approach of self-imposed isolation.

"Than Shwe is clearly pulling down the shutters to the outside world," a Burmese businessman in Rangoon told IPS.

"Burma's leaders have always been quick to impose their own form of self-isolation when they did not want to deal with problems," he said.

The cabinet changes come weeks before Burma has to defend its human rights record and the lack of progress towards political reform at several major international meetings.

Burma's foreign minister was scheduled to attend the UN General Assembly in New York, the meeting of Asian and European leaders (ASEM) in Vietnam and the summit of ASEAN leaders in the Laotian capital Vientiane.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, is a 10-member grouping of countries in the region. They include Brunei, Burma, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

Burma joined the club in 1997 despite misgivings by some governments and activists in and out of the region, but ASEAN countries said membership would allow their 'constructive engagement' policy to slowly encourage Rangoon to open up its political system.

"To change the foreign minister at this crucial moment is an insult to the international community -- and it is a clear message that Burma's leaders have little or no regard for international opinion," a senior UN official said.

Win Aung was replaced less than a week before the foreign minister was due to go to New York for the start of the United Nations General Assembly and defend Burma in the face of international criticism. Burma's human rights record is set to be closely scrutinised during the UN session.

The resolution on Burma this year is expected to be very tough, according to diplomats in New York.

Than Shwe's stubborn refusal to release the pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest has also angered international opinion.

Apart from addressing the United Nations, the foreign minister was also scheduled to attend an informal meeting on Burma with UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and his special Burma envoy Razali Ismail.

It is still unclear whether the new foreign minister will attend the New York meetings, according to senior UN sources. But it now seems he will be going to the general assembly, accompanied by the labor minister Tin Win, who was also made a minister in the premier's office in the reshuffle, according to Burmese government officials.

Last week the UN secretary-general released an extremely critical report on the state of Burma's national reconciliation process. In it, he condemned the regime for failing to involve the opposition leader Suu Kyi and political parties in the National Convention, which is currently drawing up a new constitution.

Suu Kyi was first placed under house arrest by the military junta months before the 1990 national elections, where her National League for Democracy (NLD) won the majority of seats. She was released briefly in 1995, but her movements outside the capital Rangoon were restricted by the junta.

But Suu Kyi has spent the last year in detention after pro-government thugs attacked her convoy, and her party has since endured a renewed crackdown.

Since late last year the former foreign minister Win Aung has repeatedly told UN envoy, Razali Ismail, and his Asian counterparts that Suu Kyi would be released in time to participate in the National Convention.

"Aung San Suu Kyi will be fully free, able to meet other members of her party and conduct normal political activities," Win Aung told IPS in an exclusive interview in the Thai island of Phuket earlier this year.

"The NLD will also be allowed to re-open their offices before the convention gets underway," he said.

But despite these assurances from the foreign minister -- relaying Gen Khin Nyunt's position -- Than Shwe excluded the political parties from the constitutional drafting process and kept Suu Kyi locked up.

Win Aung's removal now casts major doubts about the future of UN envoy Razali Ismail. It is now seven months since he was last allowed to visit Rangoon. Repeated requests to return have been rebuffed by the regime, according to diplomats in Rangoon.

"Ambasssador Razali angered the senior general last time he was here when he called for the prime minister to be given a mandate to introduce political reform and suggested that there was a rift between the top military leaders," according to a senior Asian diplomat.

The pragmatists, including the prime minister, who favour involving Suu Kyi in the national reconciliation process and engaging in a dialogue with the international community, are being increasingly sidelined and worried about their future.

The foreign ministry has traditionally been under the control of the country's military intelligence chiefs. Win Aung's removal and replacement by an army man is a clear indication that Than Shwe and the hardliners have wrested control from Khin Nyunt.

"Unfortunately Burma's future lies in the hands of only one man," a western diplomat based in Rangoon said on condition of anonymity. "And that is not the prime minister."