Burma's Generals Dump Prime Minister

by Marwaan Macan-Markar

(IPS) BANGKOK -- By dismissing the country's prime minister in an unprecedented manner, Burma's military leader Senior Gen. Than Shwe has affirmed that the junta's hardliners will fight hard to retain their grip on power.

Few Burma watchers expected Gen. Khin Nyunt's end as the nominated prime minister of the military regime to come so dramatically when he was sacked and placed under house arrest on Monday night. News only filtered out to the international community on Tuesday, when Khin Nyunt's arrest was confirmed by Thailand.

According to Thai officials, Rangoon justified the move due to allegations of corruption, an excuse often trotted out by the junta when it had gone after its colleagues in previous years.

"Low-ranking officers have been removed before, but never this high. This is new for this dog-eat-dog business," Aung Zaw, editor of 'The Irrawaddy,' a news magazine on Burma published by Burmese journalists in exile, told IPS.

"The timing is also surprising," he added, since Rangoon had let Khin Nyunt acquire a high international profile by nominating him as the prime minister last year.

Khin Nyunt, however, was no defender of political and civil liberties, either, during his years as the head of this Southeast Asian country's military intelligence wing. He was seen as part of the powerful troika that suppressed a nation of nearly 50 million people.

In addition to Than Shwe and Khin Nyunt, there was Vice Senior Gen. Maung Aye, the second in command of the all-powerful army, who, like Gen. Than Shwe, ranks among the hawks in the junta.

The army has ruled Burma since it staged a coup in 1962 and has shown scant respect for political and civil liberties. Voices of dissent and clamours for freedom have always been met with brutal force in the form of batons and bullets.

Khin Nyunt was appointed as the premier on Aug. 25, 2003, following the global outrage against Rangoon for the attack carried out by thugs, linked to the military regime, on pro- democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

Soon after, the new premier launched a charm offensive to woo Burma's South-east Asian neighbours and the international community with assurances of Rangoon's commitment towards political reform.

Some Burma watchers viewed Khin Nyunt as a moderate for the plans he revealed -- the most important of which was a seven-step road map towards democratic reform in Burma. The reconvening of the National Convention to draft a new constitution, which was first initiated in 1993 but adjourned in 1996, was described, at the time, as the preliminary step of this exercise.

In addition, he was also reported to favour talks with Suu Kyi, who has spent the past year under house arrest. This strategy with Suu Kyi was also adopted by Khin Nyunt when he negotiated with leaders of the ethnic rebel groups, who had been waging separatist struggles with Rangoon, to sign peace agreements.

But the hardliners -- led by Than Shwe -- stood their ground, opposing any reconciliation between Suu Kyi and the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), as the Burmese government is officially known.

"Khin Nyunt attempt to convince the international community that the SPDC is serious about change has finally been unraveled with his arrest," Win Naing, managing editor of 'The New Vision', told IPS.

"He never had any power to decide change," added Win Naing, whose monthly is published by Burmese journalists in exile.

"Than Shwe has remained in control and he has proved this by crushing Khin Nyunt," he stressed.

Other critics of the junta warn governments who were hoping for change in Rangoon to prepare for the worse.

"The road map is in the ditch. And there won't be any place for any international diplomacy in Burma in the next few months," Debbie Stothard of the Alternate ASEAN (Association of South-east Asian Nations) Network on Burma or ALTSEAN, said in an interview.

According to Stothard, the country may return to a policy of isolation that was advocated by the military rulers, who preceded Than Shwe,

"There is already panic in Rangoon and the scale of uncertainty will escalate," she pointed out.

Hints of Than Shwe going after Khin Nyunt to consolidate the power of the junta's hardliners began to emerge in late September following the firing of Foreign Minister Win Aung, a moderate and ally of Khin Nyunt.

Burma watchers also saw cracks appearing within the military regime over the growing international criticism being levelled against it, ranging from UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, the U.S. government to the European Union.

"The power struggle between the intelligence wing and the army had been brewing for some time," said Aung Zaw, the editor. "Now the hawks in the army have come on top."

Yet neither Aung Zaw nor Stothard view the days ahead would be a smooth ride for strongman Than Shwe, since Khin Nyunt is a powerful figure with great influence within certain influential sections of Burmese society.

"There could be an implosion," said Stothard. "Khin Nyunt has strong links with people who may have a lot to lose by his arrest."