Bush Won't Condemn Israeli Assassination

by Marty Logan

(IPS) -- The muted and contradictory reaction by the White House to Israel's killing of Hamas founder Sheikh Ahmed Yassin is merely "rhetoric," according to one Middle East expert in Washington.

Late Monday, White House Spokesman Scott McClellan signalled a slight change in the administration's reaction to the murder of Yassin, known as the spiritual leader of Hamas, telling reporters at the end of a news conference the administration was "deeply troubled by this morning's incident in Gaza."

Earlier, U.S. National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice had denied that Washington had been consulted before the attack, but seemingly justified the killing. She told a television news program: "Sheikh Yassin has himself, personally we believe, been involved in terrorist planning."

The killing has been condemned by political leaders worldwide.

That shift is not significant, according to Henry Siegman of the Council on Foreign Relations. "It's rhetoric and it's in response to urgent messages they got probably from ambassadors all over the Arab Middle East who said, 'My God. Do you have any idea what's happening?'"

A primary reason the government of President George W. Bush will not change its stance toward Israel is the upcoming presidential elections, according to Siegman, a former director of the American Jewish Congress.

"The administration of this Republican Party is obsessed with the idea that it can finally make powerful inroads in the Jewish vote, which up until now has been consistently over the years between 70 and 80 percent for the Democrats."

"They think they really have a shot at changing that," he added in an interview.

The wheelchair-bound Yassin was killed in a strike by helicopter gunships as he returned from morning prayers at a mosque Monday. Six other people were killed and more than one dozen wounded.

Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians turned out for his afternoon funeral.

Many groups vowed revenge. A statement published on an Islamist website Monday claiming to be from the al-Qaeda terrorist group of Osama bin Laden urged retaliation against the United States and its allies for the assassination.

"Sheikh Yassin's blood will not have been shed in vain -- we call on all the Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades to avenge the sheikh of the Palestinian resistance by striking the tyrant of the century America and its allies," said the statement.

Even if the White House does not intend to alter its dealings with Israel, it should be "deeply troubled" by the murder, says Siegman.

"It is terribly damaging to what was already a problematic American initiative, this greater Middle East peace initiative... Now in the aftermath of the assassination and the perception in the Muslim world and the Arab world that it would not have been undertaken without American support, I think the possibility of Washington coming up with an initiative that won't be rejected outright, in a very angry way by the Arab world is very remote."

It will now be "utterly impossible" for the Palestinian authority of Yasser Arafat to "rein in" Hamas, predicted Siegman and, if as it appears, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon was trying to instigate an all-out war with Hamas, the murder kills any hope of a political settlement to the Israel-Palestine crisis.

It also threatens to export the West Bank's violence outside Israel's borders, said one expert.

"Until now Hamas made it very clear that its struggle was internal and that it would not expand its attacks outside Palestinian territories. Today there are signs that some Hamas officials accused the United States of being indirectly responsible for the killing of their leader and insinuated that they could retaliate against U.S. interests," said Fawaz Gerges, chair of International Affairs and Middle Eastern Studies at Sarah Lawrence College.

"After Yassin's assassination, the rallying cry of Hamas leaders is for all-out war, and that there no longer exist any red lines," Gerges said. "There is a danger that the further radicalization of Hamas will translate into more suicide bombings against Israelis."

"This is exactly what I meant by the law of unintended consequences. Will Israel be safer after the exit of Yassin from the scene? It is very unlikely," Gerges told an on-line discussion with the 'Washington Post' newspaper.

Siegman, though, cautioned against that prediction, saying Hamas has always followed a national agenda. "They always stress that they're not at war with the United States; they're angry at the U.S. for the support they're giving Israel, but their agenda is not the U.S. otherwise."

Rice took an almost upbeat tone on NBC's 'Today' show. "There is always a possibility of a better day in the Middle East and some of the things being talked about by the Israelis -- about disengagement from areas -- might provide new opportunities."

Said Rice: "I would hope that nothing will be done to preclude those new opportunities from emerging."