A Grieving Spain Mobilizes Europe

by Stefania Bianchi and Sanjay Suri

(IPS) BRUSSELS -- The bomb attack in Madrid Thursday highlights weaknesses in the European Union's troubled foreign policy, but it has also bred determination to strengthen it.

The Spanish government originally pointed the finger of blame at the Basque separatist group ETA, but evidence emerged later to suggest that it may have been the work of the terrorist network al-Qaeda.

Those fresh indications turned this from what might have been seen as a domestic problem for Spain into an international issue. And to that extent it immediately raised questions about a broad response that would never have come up in the same way over a domestic issue.

"It is still not proved that it is an authentic claim of responsibility," a senior Spanish official said in response to a purported letter faxed from al-Qaeda to a London newspaper claiming responsibility for the attack. "We think there are more possibilities that it is ETA than any other organization."

To the extent that those responsible are found to be ETA -- or believed to be ETA -- the Spanish government would reduce its responsibility in provoking an attack because it backed the United States strongly ahead of the invasion of Iraq last year. But until conclusive evidence emerges, al-Qaeda will be considered by many as the likely culprit.

Response from the European Union (EU) may not await 'smoking gun' evidence, or an eventual court conviction. Response is likely to be guided by the principle that it is safe in the meanwhile to err on the side of caution in strengthening common security and defense.

The bombings inevitably raise questions about the European Union's Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) proposed in 1999. This policy seeks to strengthen security within the EU, promote international cooperation, and safeguard fundamental interests and the independence and integrity of the Union.

But moves towards a working CFSP have been fraught with trouble. Problems have included divisions between member states, and transatlantic relations.

At the height of the Iraq crisis last year which divided the EU's member states into two camps for and against war, there was much speculation that the EU could forget about its ambitions to develop a real security policy. After the Madrid bombings these will not be forgotten that easily.

Questions about EU relations with the United States are re-emerging. European media reflected Friday just how important this question has now become.

"Europe is faced with greater dilemmas than America after Sept. 11," the Hungarian daily Nepszabadsag wrote. If the attack was the work of Basque separatists, "then it highlights the failure of most European states to find a working compromise with their national minorities. If, however, the bombers were Islamic extremists, then current European reservations to America's response are untenable."

And if they are untenable, they would also be unworkable. The prime political fallout of the attacks could well be a more cohesively European strengthening of security relations with the United States.

The bombing links Spain with the United States even more firmly than did its support of the invasion of Iraq. "Did al-Qaeda want to punish Spain for its alliance with the United States and its part in the Iraq war?" asked the Polish Gazeta Wyborcza. It was the question on everyone's mind.

It is a question that may need a European, and not a Spanish response. And it will have a huge bearing on the future of the CFSP.

One faction of popular opinion suggests that Spain was picked, rather than France or Germany, because of its support to the United States. This could further divide European nations over relations with the U.S. But the French and German governments have strongly -- and predictably -- condemned the attacks.

The view gaining most followers is that whatever the political differences, a massacre of the innocent can never be accepted.

Still, the 'punishment for Spain' theory may cause all eyes to turn to Britain which has not been hit yet, and if any country in Europe would be prime target for the al-Qaeda, it would be Britain. And no one can guarantee that France and Germany are for ever safe from terrorist attacks.

The indications from the array of responses are that European leaders will now move towards a policy of holding together in the face of terrorist threats, rather than figuring which country could be targeted, and which one not.

How this translates into common policy is another matter. As is the question what bearing it will have on recent proposals for a European defense apparatus that could be set up outside of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

That move led by France and Britain, and supported by Britain too, aimed to put European defense responses into operation only when it was agreed that NATO would not play a role. It would therefore seek to supplement NATO rather than replace it. But after March 11 in Madrid, NATO too could emerge stronger.

Dr Fraser Cameron, an expert on EU-U.S. relations at the Brussels-based European Policy Center, told the Australian television news channel ABC that cracks in the EU's CFSP could be repaired.

The war in Iraq had showed the disarray in the EU, but he said "the common foreign and security policies have only been going a short period of time, and the trend is towards converging on most policy issues."

Cameron said he doubted that the enlargement of the EU in May with ten new members, mostly former Soviet states of Eastern Europe, would make it difficult to advance a common foreign policy

"There's a great deal of convergence already in the policies of most of these 10 countries joining in May and the present 15 member states," he said. "It would be occasionally more difficult to take decisions. But by and large I think they will go with the overall consensus that has already emerged."