Bush War Strategy Varies Day To Day

by Franz Schurmann

In the past few days, it seems the United Nations and the European Union are telling Bush to wake up. Unlike the 1991 Gulf War, where Bush Sr. had the support of the United Nations and European Union, as well as an unprecedented Arab coalition, few allies are coming out openly for Bush Jr. But Bush Jr. looks determined to invade Iraq, all alone if need be.

At the same time, it seems the worry gauge is going down in the Middle East. The tone of the Arab press is nonchalant. They don't take Bush's venting seriously. This leads one to wonder if all the players are not just acting in a make-believe drama.

Consider what Tony Blair has been doing rather than defending his beleaguered ally Bush. Blair held a conference on Palestine in London to which Israel was not invited. Sharon, seemingly furious, prevented the Palestinian delegation from attending. But the conference went on anyway, with the Palestinians participating from Ramallah through a satellite connection. It allowed Sharon to play his own part in the make-believe drama -- act tough but not get in the way.

In this scenario, Blair has become Bush's point man to remind the world that once the Iraq issue has been resolved, Israel, like it or not, will move to center stage. Many in Washington policy circles think that the road to Jerusalem will go through Baghdad. The Arab states know this. Saudi King Fah'd and strongman Prince Abdullah just announced the first step toward that scenario -- a big conference of all Arab states in March to spur economic and social development.

Meanwhile, we are told to believe that Bush Jr. will launch a one-month war against Iraq in February, as a prelude to the grand Arab revival conference in March. Yet, the Los Angeles Times reports that United States and Britain are now mulling over giving the weapons inspectors a few more weeks. All of it suggests that in this make-believe scenario, Washington wants a war that is limited enough not to endanger grander visions for the region but decisive enough to show how tough Bush can be.

The markets are fluctuating with this up and down make-believe scenario. The authoritative London-based Arabic-language daily As-Sharq al-Awsat (ASAA) wrote on Jan. 17 that the price of Brent crude oil was at its highest in two years. That, plus a weakening dollar, should suggest a worsening recession.

Yet in the next paragraph the editors implied just the opposite. They quoted John Felmy, a top oil expert in the powerful American Petroleum Institute, as saying "I see no reason to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves held by the American government at this time." In the Gulf War, Bush Sr. did just that, and it led the markets to believe that rocky economic times were ahead and the recession was going to linger. That perception was a factor in Bush Sr.'s 1992 defeat. So Felmy implies that the recession will likely recede, making a drawdown of reserve oil unnecessary.

If Israel is a big yet tacit issue in the Iraq crisis, oil is an even bigger one. Global demand for oil increases by some 2.5 percent every year. Anglo-American oil companies are worried that the Middle East may become so destabilized that a few years hence the world could face an energy crisis that will dwarf any oil crisis sparked by war in Iraq. As a result, oil companies are eagerly looking to Africa as a safer place.

The one African country that arguably has the biggest reserves of both oil and water is the Sudan. A longtime Sudanese commentator for the ASAA, As-Sirr Sayyid Ahmed, recently wrote: "Arabs are getting interested in the Sudan as they have not during the last two decades. They are coming in droves as individuals or groups for political or economic reasons."

The Sudan was a "rogue state" until, early in his administration, Bush appointed former Missouri Sen. John Danforth as his personal envoy to bring peace in the Sudan after decades of civil war. The negotiations now going on in Kenya have been difficult, but the White House recently announced it wants a final settlement within three months.

A recent issue of the National Geographic shows oil companies moving rapidly into the Sudan. Neighboring Chad to the west is said to have oil reserves possibly greater than those of the Sudan. And to the north is Libya, which for 30 years has been a major oil producer. If these three countries remain stable and produce a lot of oil and natural gas, that will go a long way toward reassuring SUV drivers in America that they need not worry about tanking up.

Bush Sr. lost re-election because the Democrats tarred him with the slogan "It's the economy, stupid." Bush Jr. is determined not to fall into a similar trap. The 1992 slogan was make-believe, because recovery came in April 1993, just two months after Clinton's inauguration.

Now this administration is playing its own make-believe game, with a peace move one day and war noises the next. Make-believe or not, Republican PR man Karl Rove is surely hoping that it will end up promoting the one product he needs to sell to the American public in 2004 -- his boss, George W. Bush.