A Possible Win-Win Scenario For Bush

by Franz Schurmann

Rumors are now circulating in the Arab world that Libya has extended an invitation to Saddam Hussein to accept exile there. If he should agree, then this outcome may be best explained by a military philosopher who wrote 26 centuries ago. The great Chinese general Sun-tzu (aka Sunzi) said in his book, "The Art of War," "the highest good in war comes when a general defeats his enemy without having fought a battle (3:1)." If this outcome occurs, Commander in Chief George Bush will have won the war without ever having fought a battle.

Sun-tzu's Art of War also gave rise to the Sino-Japanese game of Go, which involves surrounding and squeezing your opponent until he can no longer fight. In a classic Go move, Bush has surrounded Iraq with hostile states and is now squeezing Saddam to surrender.

Bush Jr. has been following a strategy in the Israel-Palestinian conflict that was developed by George Bush Sr.'s secretary of state, James Baker III. Baker's strategy was based on surrounding Israel with pro-American Arab states. It was called the Madrid approach because its first meeting took place in Madrid. Current Secretary of State Colin Powell has extended the strategy over most of the Arab world.

Egypt fosters anti-Israeli television programs but accepts increased military aid from Washington. Libya's strongman Mo'amer Qadhafi works with Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak to bring about peace in the Sudan pushed along by Bush appointee former Missouri Republican Sen. John Danforth. And the Sudan and Syria, both earlier labeled by Washington as "rogue states," are now reportedly exchanging intelligence with American agencies.

A few months ago, the pan-Arab message that Washington was getting every day from the Middle East held there was no way Arab countries would support Bush to topple Saddam Hussein and at the same time not get an acceptable Israeli-Palestinian peace. But some time late last year, the tone of the message changed to wait and see.

The White House stated gauging Arab resistance to the removal of Saddam Hussein as early as March 2002, when Bush sent Vice President Cheney to the Middle East. When Cheney returned, he said Arab leaders are "uniformly concerned" about Saddam Hussein. But CBS news reported a different statement by Jordan's King Abdullah in an interview with the French paper Le Figaro: "I have told him (Cheney) that the Middle East cannot support two wars at the same time -- the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and an American intervention against Iraq."

After Cheney's trip, Bush decided to declare Saddam Hussein the world's public enemy No. 1. It seemed that he brushed the young King Abdullah's warning aside. But now most of the Arabic speaking countries are working together with America. The strongest explanation for this new Arab tilt towards America is that Bush has committed himself to a settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict acceptable to the Arabs, even as he is readying himself for the final battle to topple Saddam Hussein.

There are indirect signs that Washington is finally moving on the Israeli-Palestinian war front. Bush's closest ally, U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair, has called for an Arab peace conference. Not only did he fail to invite Israel, but when former right-wing Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in town, Blair refused to meet with him.

However, the Arab world will be demanding more than a diplomatic snub. Another sign that Bush is moving on the Israeli-Palestinian war comes from NATO's No. 2 American ally after Germany. Turkey's new moderate Muslim prime minister, Abdullah Gul, whose support Bush needs for any war in Iraq, has been warning his Arab neighbors on recent travels about the rising tide of Islamic fundamentalism. Though earlier secular Turkish governments were major allies of Israel, this time Gul did not include Tel Aviv on his trip.

The Arab world wants to know when the Madrid strategy will bring about major Israeli concessions. And Bush will have to take their demands seriously because the downfall of Saddam Hussein, with no movement on the Israel-Palestine front, could also make Islamic fundamentalism the Arab world's wave of the future.

Sun-tzu also wrote that "wars value victory over prolongation (2:6)." And so the world fearfully awaits an answer to the ominously dangling question whether Bush will launch a massive battle that could wipe Iraq off the map or, instead, use his already achieved victory as a springboard to end the Israeli-Palestinian bloodshed.

Yet, whichever strategy he chooses, he has already won the war. Whether Iraq surrenders or is pulverized, it will effectively become an American protectorate. And as the Arab states fall into full line behind the United States, Israel, sooner rather than later, will have to make major concessions to the Palestinians.