Burmese Urged To Overthrow Military Junta

Analysis by Teena Amrit Gill

But for some, these tougher words, which could even indicate some change of heart on ASEAN's part, may be too late to influence conditions within Burma.

As this year's ASEAN chairman, Philippine Foreign Secretary Domingo Siazon, made his bold remarks in Manila at the end of July, opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi remained holed up in her car outside Rangoon due to the military's refusal to let her meet her supporters.

And amid continuing harassment and intimidation by the ruling junta, called the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), there are growing fears that her ultimatum for the SPDC to convene a parliament of elected members by Aug 21 may come to naught.

On July 24, Suu Kyi's car was stopped as she attempted to travel west of the capital to meet party members at Bessein, a town 130 kms outside Rangoon. They had been barred from coming to meet her in the capital.

It was the third time in July that she has been prevented from leaving the capital. On one occasion, security officials stopped her car, hoisted it and turned it around to face the direction toward Rangoon.

Concerned by the growing threats to Suu Kyi, U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said at the ASEAN meetings that the Burmese junta would be held responsible for her "health and welfare."

Siazon said that if Burmese exiles wanted to change the situation, they should go home and "change it from within." He added: "In the same sense that we here in the Philippines, when he had to overthrow a dictatorship, the Filipino people rose up."

But on July 29, Burmese Foreign Minister U Ohn Gyaw rejected a request conveyed in a special meeting sought by foreign ministers from the U.S., Japan, Canada, European Union, New Zealand and Australia at the series of ASEAN-related meetings that ended Wednesday.

They asked that the Japanese ambassador and American charge d' affaires in Rangoon be given access to Suu Kyi, but Ohn Gyaw said the political situation was "improving." He added that American embassy personnel had in the past three months met with Suu Kyi 104 times and with the British officials, 80 times.

Ohn Gyaw said Suu Kyi was being restricted "for her own security protection", saying she had promised upon her release from house arrest in 1995 to avoid "subversive activities."

"The response is not satisfying. It is not a solution at all," said Austrian Foreign Minister Wolfgang Schussel, representing the EU. "We expect that the regime should let Aung San Suu Kyi go. There should be full freedom of movement of citizens in their country."

While this ultimatum has been seen by some as a possible sign for people to come out and agitate against the junta, for others it is just a strategy to pressure the SPDC to finally come to the negotiating table.

"Since the SPDC will not convene parliament this is just a tactic, to pressure them to negotiate," said a senior leader of the Democratic Alliance of Burma (DAB).

But many believe such negotiations will not take place now, since they have not occurred for eight years now -- unless there is sustained pressure from ASEAN and foreign donors such as the Japanese, together with the drying up of huge sums of money that have begun to flow into the country with the completion of the Yadana gas pipeline.

If such negotiations do not take place, then what? If parliament is not convened, will the people come out into the streets -- which many believe is what Suu Kyi desires?

Indeed, without doubt the economic situation in Burma is far worse than after the 1988 mass, pro-democracy uprising. But at the same time, the extreme controls and restrictions imposed by the military since then have also made mass mobilization all the more difficult.

In addition, the arrest in recent months of 79 elected ministers of the NLD is known to have further weakened Suu Kyi's party.

More importantly, the fear entrenched in Burma following the brutal repression of the 1988 movement, in which thousands were estimated to have been killed, is still very much present.

"Everyone is very afraid, even those who were involved in the movement in 1988," said a Burmese journalist based in Thailand, "because if caught they can be jailed for 15 to 20 years."

"No one will dare to come out on the streets, unless Suu Kyi or other NLD leaders take the initiative, he added. "But Suu Kyi is like a bird who cannot fly."

On the other hand though, the SPDC's continuing restrictions on Suu Kyi's movements, especially those outside Rangoon, are seen to be a sign that the junta is genuinely afraid of her getting in touch with other people.

"Preventing Suu Kyi from visiting NLD members in townships outside Rangoon is a sure recognition by the SPDC that Suu Kyi has the power to agitate," said a Burmese political dissident based in Chiang Mai, in northern Thailand.

However, he added: "One cannot though say when the people may come to the streets. While Suu Kyi's strength is undoubtedly mass movement, this is slow and takes time. And she is only now beginning to identify her friends and move away from her adversaries, even within her own party thus clearing the way to strike hard."

But it is exactly the question of time that is the most crucial at the moment.

If the initiative is not taken now, and the NLD fails soon to seize the power which is rightfully its own, eight years after winning the general elections, many fear that this goal may not be achieved and a change to democracy may perhaps never happen.

"The year 1998 is absolutely critical for us," said a member of the All Burmese Students Democratic Front. "Some change must happen this year, or else the situation may go totally out of hand."