Hard Times, Suharto Overthrow Have Radicalized Indonesia

by Andreas Harsono

The uninvited crowd entered the house with unmistakable anger. They ransacked the building, and took a larger-than-life portrait of Salim out to the street, where they jeered the image of the Chinese-born Indonesian who is an old friend of then-President Suharto.

Elsewhere throughout Jakarta, Salim's Bank Central Asia, the biggest bank here, saw 122 of its 400 branches pillaged. More than 120 $30,000 automatic teller machines were reportedly lost to vandals and thieves.

The message was clear. Neither Suharto nor Liem nor other Suharto cronies enjoys any popularity among ordinary people here. Price hikes, rising unemployment, corrupt practices, cronyism, high inflation and repressive government have cumulatively moved people to rebel. Finally, Indonesians said, the long-awaited volcano in Southeast Asia erupted.

But a disciplined, student-led movement managed to occupy the Indonesian parliament building and to force Suharto to step down on May 21. The ashen-faced Suharto announced in a nationally-broadcast television report that he could not govern the country anymore. With a three-minute statement, he ended a 33-year, iron-fisted rule. People rejoiced.

A glorious victory at last?

"No," say many political analysts, economists, politicians and diplomats. Suharto has basically left behind a country with no uncorrupted big businesses or strong political institutions. The iron man is gone, but his corrupt regime remains behind. Worse still, he left a country on the brink of total chaos.

Vice President B.J. Habibie, who replaced Suharto in accordance with the constitution, is widely known as a Suharto protege. Even the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank and international investors remain wary of the new administration.

Suharto's hand-picked parliament approved Habibie as vice president in March despite the disapproval of military officers, ruling Golkar party executives, some Muslim organizations, and minority groups -- especially Christians -- who mostly see Habibie as a sectarian figure, a big spender and an unqualified leader.

The Indonesian rupiah instantaneously plunged to a historic low of 17,000 against the American dollar when the flamboyant Habibie was named as Suharto's vice president in January.

Practically no big business in Indonesia was established without the patronage of Suharto as well as his six children, Max Lane of the Sydney-based Asia Pacific Institute for Democratization and Development says.

"It's going to be difficult. Sweeping the cronies out means destroying the economic fundamentals of the country."

The fate of the BCA conglomerate, for example, is closely linked to Indonesia's largest food producer, Indofood, which is also controlled by Salim. Big problems for Indofood are likely to affect food availability. The Salim group controls 96 per cent of the instant noodle market, as well as a large share of the market in cooking oil, wheat flavor, cement, and basic condiments such as soya sauce and tomato sauce.

"There is a big public demand for the trial of economic criminals. But if you move too suddenly in the interests of justice and then you don't have an alternative source of noodles, then you will have a disruption in the supply of basic foodstuffs," said economist Mari Pangestu of the Jakarta-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Lane predicted that the ongoing economic crisis may even lead to a mass radicalization of the world's fourth most populous country. The worst scenario, and unfortunately the most likely, is that without democratic and popular government, proper economic management and a new injection of funding, Indonesia will face a long season of political instability. As the popular credo goes, "Hungry people are angry people."

"Nothing can stop the radicalization," said Lane, adding that the people will grow as impatient with the Habibie government, and as the Marcoses did in the Philippines, Suharto, his cronies and children will re-emerge from hiding to reclaim their fortunes.

But Habibie has not, as perhaps the Suhartos expected, remain silent. In an apparent bid to win public support, Habibie immediately released some political prisoners, met with the riot-hit Chinese traders, allowed the establishment of political parties and promised to hold a general election next year.

Opposition leaders, however, who had earlier demanded an election this year, charged that Habibie is only playing for time while trying to consolidate a new regime. Meanwhile, Habibie's economic team demonstrated little support for the eccentric president.

"You aren't going to see any investment coming in for a while," Pangestu said. "The more you look at the numbers, the gloomier it gets." Others support that view.

"It's going to be chaotic. Only strongmen, semi-criminals and irrational figures could establish some sort of stability. These warlords will appear everywhere," said Rahman Tolleng, a co-founder of the Forum for Democracy, a loosely-organized forum for Jakarta intellectuals and dissidents.

Tolleng, a former student leader of the 1960s, said without stable political institutions, it is very likely that the May 14 looting will be repeated. People are hungry, the economic situation is deteriotating and the government is very weak.

Anyone holding the top job in Indonesia, whether Habibie, opposition figures like Muslim leader Amien Rais or nationalist Megawati Sukarnoputri, wouldn't be able to do much more for people than Suharto did under the structures of IMF reform.

"They have no choice but to cooperate with the International Monetary Fund," said Lane, describing the economic restoration program recommended by the IMF is as a series of painful economic remedies.

But many critics believe that the IMF has given Indonesia the "wrong medicine." IMF's strictures only exacerbated the economic crisis. The result, they say, is that no international financial institutions are willing to give credit guarantees to Indonesia.

Perhaps, as an American diplomat here once told a friend, the worst scenario in Indonesia is not the worsening of the economic crisis, but the political consequences of economic hardship.

"The world cannot afford to have 200 million Muslim radicals," the diplomat said.

On the contrary, a democratic Indonesia, home to 210 million people, could be an important stabilizing factor in the region. A democratic Indonesia would be a precious gift to countries as far away as Australia, Japan and even China. Indeed, in addition, its immediate neighbors such as Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia and other southeast Asian countries would also benefit.

But Muslim intellectual Ulil Abshar-Abdalla of the 30-million strong Nahdlatul Ulama organization rejects gloomy predictions, saying that the global capitalism which is to embrace the post-Suharto Indonesia must prosper and be accepted if the people of Indonesia are to establish a stable and civil society.

Instead of the state, it is the people themselves who have to protect their interests from the bite of capitalism, he said.

"There is a strong consensus in this country that democracy should be established. The Muslims, the Christians and the others do not want to resist the drive to democratization any longer," said Ulil.