Japan, China Continue Saber-Rattling

by Tim Shorrock

(IPS) WASHINGTON -- Until Japanese leaders stop paying official visits to the Shinto shrine of Yasukuni, where the country's most notorious war criminals are enshrined, military tensions will continue to rise between China and Japan, a leading Chinese scholar predicts.

Those tensions, underscored by recent Japanese threats to send warships to stop Chinese oil drilling in a disputed territory in the East China Sea, "could escalate into fierce confrontation or even armed conflict," warned Jin Linbo, a research professor and the former director of Asia-Pacific studies at the China Institute of International Studies in Beijing.

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi infuriated China and its other Asian neighbors by visiting the Yasukuni Shrine on Oct. 17 for the fifth year in a row. The visit marked a particularly low point since the two Far Eastern neighbors established diplomatic relations in 1972, Jin said.

"It remains to be seen whether the two countries can reach agreement on their wartime history," he said. "I personally don't think it will come soon. It's unrealistic to think that the perception gap can be breached," Jin said in Washington at a seminar organized by the Sasakawa Peace Foundation.

But Jin drifted a step or two away from China's official policy by offering a way out of the political furor, sparked by the Yasukuni visits and Japan's recent approval of high school textbooks that downplay Japan's atrocities in Asia during World War II.

China could start by "adjusting its history-first policy with a new approach," focusing on reconciliation, said Jin, whose institute is run by the Chinese Foreign Ministry. "We cannot forget, but we can forgive those atrocities."

Japan, for its part, should voluntarily express its "sincere repentance" about the war and stop looking at China as a potential enemy, Jin added. Noting recent changes to Japan's security doctrine, he said that "mentioning China as a potential military threat is unwise and detrimental to Japan's interests."

By taking these steps, argued Jin, China and Japan could begin to work together as partners on regional and global issues, allowing China to concentrate on its long-term objective of building a strong welfare society by the year 2020. "Our foreign policy must concentrate on creating a peaceful environment for economic development," he said.

After Koizumi's latest visit to Yasukuni, China angrily canceled a pending visit to Beijing by Japanese Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura, who was scheduled to meet with Chinese leaders to defuse tensions over the gas fields claimed by both countries.

Koizumi apparently exacerbated the situation by proclaiming that he visited the shrine as a private citizen and was merely acting out his personal religious beliefs.

"I don't understand what is wrong with visiting Yasukuni as a citizen, praying for peace, (pledging) not to go to war again, offering homage and gratitude to those who died on the battlefield against their will, and not forgetting even for a moment that the present peace and prosperity were founded on the sacred sacrifice of the war dead," Koizumi told Japanese lawmakers last week.

On Tuesday, Koizumi's government said, in a statement to parliament, that it viewed a visit by a prime minister to Yasukuni as constitutional even if made in an official capacity as long as it is aimed at mourning the war dead rather than with a religious purpose.

But that was a reiteration of government position made after the last official visit to the shrine -- made by then-prime minister Yasuhiro Nakasone in 1985.

"The issue of visiting Yasukuni should not determine the entire Japan-China relationship," Kozumi told lawmakers.

The animosity runs both ways. The Japanese government is still seething over the violent, anti-Japanese demonstrations that swept through 10 Chinese cities last spring. During one of those protests, the Japanese consulate in Shanghai was bombarded with stones as Chinese police -- usually quick to quell demonstrations of any sort -- stood aside.

Those incidents were sparked by the publication of Japanese textbooks, one of which described the wartime massacre of several hundred thousand Chinese in the city of Nanjing as "an incident."

Eric Heginbotham, a specialist on East Asian politics at the RAND Corp., a think-tank funded primarily by the U.S. Air Force, said the demonstrations marked a new stage in the tense relationship between China and Japan. "This is a whole new animal -- and quite frightening," he said.

Heginbotham said both governments were "consciously manipulating" nationalism for their own ends, and thus "trapped by sentiments they helped create." But he agreed with Jin that Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni are stoking the antagonism.

"Until Yasukuni is resolved, it's hard to imagine anything taking place," Heginbotham said. By saying "next to nothing" about the issue, he added, the U.S. government is "partly responsible" for the tensions.

He urged Japan to find an alternative site to commemorate its war dead, such as Arlington National Cemetery near Washington. "But Yasukuni is not Arlington and I doubt it can play that role," he said.

A look at the official Yasukuni Web site shows why the shrine inspires passion among Japan's nationalists -- and such intense anger abroad.

One section of the site, entitled "A Correct View of History," refers to the declaration by the Military Tribunal for the Far East -- the postwar trials of Japanese war criminals -- that Japan fought a war of aggression.

"Can we say that this view is correct?" writes Kenji Ueda, president of Kokugakuin University. "Isn't it a fact that the West with its military power invaded and ruled over much of Asia and Africa and that this was the start of East-West relations? There is no uncertainty in history. Japan's dream of building a Great East Asia was necessitated by history and it was sought after by the countries of Asia. We cannot overlook the intent of those who wish to tarnish the good name of the noble souls of Yasukuni."