Campaigns Braced For Last Minute Dirty Tricks

by Jim Lobe

In what appears to be a classic dirty trick, Republicans in Tenn. are claiming that Democratic Rep. Craig Fitzhugh created an insulting poster. Fitzhugh's office insists that the flyers were dropped off at campaign HQ by an unknown person and promptly thrown away, where it was fished out of the trash and publicized by his opponent. Conservatives such as the Traditional Values Coalition and TeamGOP are using the flyer to attack Democrats

(IPS) WASHINGTON -- With just days before the Nov. 2 elections, pundits and polls agree that the presidential race between incumbent George W Bush and his Democratic challenger Senator John Kerry is too close too call.

Conventional wisdom says the three presidential debates that began at the end of September and ended Wednesday have effectively erased a substantial lead Bush had built up as a result of an aggressive and exceptionally negative advertising campaign that began in mid-August.

As a result, Kerry has now drawn even with the president, according to virtually all of the polls, giving him a certain momentum going into the home stretch.

As noted Thursday by Chris Nelson, whose daily newsletter, 'The Nelson Report', is widely read in Washington, "For the first time, professional Democrats think Kerry will win. Last week, they felt he could win."

Even some Republicans admit Kerry may have the wind at his back. "It's time for Bush to get worried," read the headline in the 'Financial Times' following the third debate, on an article by prominent Republican pollster Frank Luntz.

That notion was also boosted by Bush's unexpected appearance in the rear cabin of Air Force One on Thursday to meet briefly with the reporters who are confined to that part of the presidential aircraft -- the first time he had ventured back there since the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on New York and the Pentagon.

"His appearance was interpreted by reporters as a sign of how eager -- possibly even desperate -- Bush is to put the debate phase of the campaign behind him," wrote the Washington Post's David Froomkin.

At the same time, however, Kerry's momentum does not appear strong enough to give him a decisive edge at this point, argue the pundits, who note that the advantage of incumbency permits Bush to better control the news agenda over the final days.

On the other hand, both candidates remain largely hostage to outside events over which they have little control but which could easily affect the outcome.

A terrorist attack within the United States, significant losses of U.S. military personnel in Iraq or Afghanistan or the capture of al-Qaeda terrorist leader Osama bin Laden or his top deputies (a nightmare for Democrats at this point in the campaign) or a sustained plunge in the stock market could each prove decisive one way or another going into the final days.

In addition, a series of major unknowns -- voter turnout, above all -- is making the pundits exceptionally cautious this year. While both major parties agree turnout is likely to be substantially greater than the 105 million voters who cast ballots in 2000, they differ significantly on how much greater.

Republicans predict at most 112 million voters will show up at the polls and fervently hope that four million of the additional seven million voters will be fundamentalist Christians who did not vote four years ago and who are thought to strongly favour Bush.

On the other hand, Democrats, who generally do better when more people vote, predict a turnout of as many as 118 million. They hope that the vast majority of new voters will be African American (more than eight of 10 of whom are expected to vote for Kerry); Hispanics (among whom Kerry enjoys about a two-to-one lead); and young voters between 18 and 29, the age group for which Kerry polls best, according to a series of surveys.

Another factor that bears directly on turnout is "dirty tricks," according to the experts, who predict that they are likely to play a bigger role in this campaign than any in recent memory, precisely because the vote is expected to be so close.

That would be despite the greater media attention that already is focused on irregularities of the kind that produced the fiasco in Florida in 2000, which ended with all of that state's electoral votes going to Bush, giving him the electoral majority and the presidency.

"It will be the dirty tricks by Republicans to suppress the vote versus dirty tricks by the Democrats to get the vote out," one veteran observer told IPS, noting credible reports in just the past week about partisan activists registering new voters and then destroying the registration forms if they chose the wrong affiliation.

Judging from other controversies brewing in local and state jurisdictions, that practice may be just the tip of the iceberg.

Still another factor is the impact of third-party campaigns. While virtually all of the attention on this variable has been focused on whether consumer advocate Ralph Nader will draw enough votes away from the Democrat to throw the election to Bush, as many believe he did in 2000, some analysts have noted that Libertarian Party candidate Michael Badnarik, who is likely to pull Republican votes away from Bush, is drawing more than one percent in voter preferences, and, in several key "swing" states, is outpolling Nader, who is not expected to get more than two percent of the national vote.

While the polls show a statistical tie overall, one veteran pundit, Charlie Cook, issued a "primer" on handicapping the race in its last weeks, in his weekly column in the 'National Journal' on Friday.

First, he advised readers to ignore single polls in favor of averages of a number of polls. Cook also wrote that the point spread in the polls is less important between the candidates than Bush's percentage, because undecided voters tend to break overwhelmingly in favour of challengers on election day.

With Nader and other minor candidates likely to draw between two and three percent of the total vote, Bush, who during the past week was running at 47.8 percent (compared with Kerry at 45.8 percent) in aggregated polls, will need a minimum of about 48 percent to win, according to Cook, who added the incumbent could conceivably squeak out a victory at 47 percent.

In addition to watching that percentage, analysts should also look to Bush's job-approval rating, with the understanding that no president has been re-elected with less than 50 percent approval of his performance from the electorate, precisely the percentage at which Bush is currently running.

"But the point is," concluded Cook, "when a race like this year's presidential contest gets really close, nobody actually knows what's going to happen."

One group of analysts -- those who put money on the election outcome -- still believe Bush still has a slight advantage. At one website where individuals buy stakes on the likelihood of a Bush victory, www.tradesports.com, the president is rated the favorite by odds of 54:100.

On the eve of the first debate three weeks ago, the odds were much better, at 68:100 -- testimony to how damaging the debates have been to Bush's campaign.