Embattled Venezuela President Chavez Popularity Grows As Recall Approaches

by Humberto Marquez

(IPS) CARACAS -- A promise to create 280,000 new jobs in six months stands out in the program for a transition government in Venezuela, presented by the Democratic Coordinator at the start of its campaign Friday aimed at removing President Hugo Chavez in an Aug. 15 recall referendum.

The 27 political parties and 40 social groups that make up the opposition coalition "assume the commitment to work on the basis of this program for the government that will be in office until the end of the current term, in January 2007," political scientist Diego Urbaneja, the main drafter of the document, the 'Country Consensus Plan', told foreign correspondents.

But according to surveys conducted by the opposition-aligned polling companies themselves, support for the president has grown from 30 percent to more than 40 percent in just a few months.

His increased popularity is attributed to the success of the generous food aid and health care programs, land reform and literacy campaigns launched by the government in 2003 and provided with heavier funding this year.

The organizations and leaders of the U.S.- backed Coordinator will sign a "pact of governability" later this month for a possible post-Chavez period, said Urbaneja.

The lack of an alternative program, as well as the opposition's paralysis since the June 3 announcement by the election authorities that enough signatures had been gathered to trigger a recall referendum, while the government immediately began its campaign, have been criticized from both outside and within the multifarious opposition alliance.

The third criticism against the opposition is the lack of a central figure to hold up as a candidate in case Chavez is removed in the polls and a campaign must be launched for the subsequent early presidential elections.

An informal IPS survey among leaders of the Democratic Coordinator found that they tended to name the coordinator of the alliance, Enrique Mendoza, governor of the state of Miranda, which includes eastern Caracas, and Manuel Rosales, governor of the oil-rich western state of Zulia.

According to the constitution, if Chavez is removed in the referendum, elections are to be organized within the following 30 days to create a new government that would serve out the remaining 17 months of the presidential term.

A Supreme Court decision is still pending as to whether or not Chavez would be able to run in the early elections if he is removed from office in August.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Coordinator, which has no candidate yet, has offered the public its Country Consensus Plan, a 100-page booklet that outlines measures "aimed at rebuilding a new form of governing, focused on solving the most basic, pressing problems."

The first proposal is "to develop a consensus, build a broad political and social foundation, and reinstate mechanisms of coordination among business, labour and the government."

One of the main focuses of the opposition campaign is to try to "show that Chavez and his pseudo-revolutionary project are the cause of the division among Venezuelans," Jesus Torrealba, in charge of media relations in the Democratic Coordinator, told IPS.

The idea is to win over the 'ni-ni' (neither-nor), those who are with neither Chavez nor the opposition -- a segment of the population that has grown in the last few months, after years of intense polarisation, and which today includes more than one-third of the electorate according to opinion polls, which means the ni-ni will be in a position to tip the balance of the referendum.

The second proposal is the revitalisation of the private sector, using windfall revenues generated by the soaring price of oil, through incentives and financing for small and medium companies and the construction industry, with plans for building housing and infrastructure works.

"In six months, it is possible to create 280,000 new jobs and thus improve the incomes of 900,000 people," economist An’bal Franquiz, who helped draft the document, remarked to IPS.

The unemployment rate in this South American country of 25 million stands at 17 percent, and over half of those who work do so in the informal economy, according to official statistics.

Pollsters and media aligned with the opposition report that high unemployment, rising crime, the closure of companies and shortage of housing are the main criticisms of the government.

"We are going to focus on those areas," said Urbaneja. "In boxing terms, we'll hit the Chavez administration on its split eyebrow."

The third initiative is to review legislation and government measures that, in the view of the Coordinator, have compromised the separation of powers in Venezuela. The opposition accuses Chavez of usurping the powers of other branches of the state.

But "there are different views within the Coordinator. Some groups want to revise the constitution, but most are inclined towards working, during the transition period, under the 1999 constitution" which was promoted by Chavez and approved by a broad margin in a referendum.

The opposition forms a minority in the single-chamber parliament, where it holds 80 of 165 seats. The next legislative elections are scheduled for mid-2005.

The Country Consensus Plan also proposes decentralization, to give regional and city governments greater power and resources. In addition, it would create a Ministry of Social Development, to change the social assistance programs put in place by Chavez.

With respect to the oil industry, the opposition proposes amending the country's laws and policies to open the sector to private and foreign investment and ownership and place a greater volume of oil on the market -- in other words, abandon the policy of restricting output to shore up prices, which Chavez has promoted within the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

In addition, the program proposes redefining the role of the armed forces and "reverting their ideologisation and politicisation."

The opposition accuses Chavez -- a former paratrooper officer -- of holding up the armed forces as a pillar of his political program, and of employing them inappropriately in assistance plans that should be carried out by civilians.

Finally, on the international front, the opposition program is aimed at "recuperating Venezuela's credibility as a democratic country that promotes human rights."

"We are not going to become a 'yes man', a pro-U.S. government," said Urbaneja. "We cannot respond" to Chavez's confrontation with Washington "simply by swinging in the other direction, but with an independent government that will be in line with the United States on some issues and differ with it on others, which is only normal."

Referring to Cuba, with whose socialist government Chavez has forged close ties, "the relationship doesn't have to be negative," he said.

"We are going to review the existing accords, to examine whether they hurt the country. The Cuban government will understand," said Urbaneja.

Cuba has sent thousands of doctors and dozens of coaches and sugar industry technical experts to work in Venezuela, in exchange for preferential terms for imports of 53,000 barrels a day of oil -- similar to the favorable conditions that the Chavez administration offers other Caribbean nations.

The opposition complains loudly about all aspects of the ties with Cuba.

"What we are going to demonstrate is the government's profound political failure," opposition leader Luis Salas commented to IPS. "This is not a normal campaign of one candidate against another. Rather, it is about judging what Chavez has or has not done."

The opposition campaign will get underway this weekend with automobile caravans that will tour 55 cities, and mobilisations of activists in bus and subway stations in Caracas calling on the public to vote 'Yes' to the removal of Chavez in the August referendum.

The ruling coalition, meanwhile, which has got a jump on the opposition in the campaign for the referendum, has already inundated the press with ads and filled the streets with posters urging people to vote 'No' in defense of the government's social programs.

On radio and TV, the allocation of space for opposition and pro-government publicity is under the strict control of the election authorities, who will ensure the balanced use of broadcast and print space, and have required the stations to alternate between 'Yes' and 'No' ads.