Liberals Hang On To Power In Canada

by Mark Bourrie

(IPS) OTTAWA -- Canada's neo-conservative federal politicians were hit with a crippling setback in the June 28 election, just days after polls showed them on the verge of forming a coalition propped up by Quebec separatists.

The voting results put in question Canadian support for the U.S. missile shield initiative and crush any chance that Canada will join the U.S.-led occupation force in Iraq.

The Conservative party, newly formed from a merger of the 160-year-old Conservative Party and the 15-year-old Canadian Alliance/Reform Party, was expected as late as last weekend to make sizeable gains in Ontario, Canada's most populous province -- enough to win it the right to form a minority government.

The Liberal Party, coming out of 11 years in power and several embarrassing political scandals, was, according to pollsters, expected to lose its grip on dozens of constituencies outside of major cities in eastern Canada. Instead, in results that surprised political experts, the Liberals won 76 of Ontario's 106 seats.

Now, with the support of the social democratic New Democratic Party, the Liberals will be able to maintain a razor-thin majority in the House of Commons, Canada's lower house. If a speaker is elected from the opposition, the Liberals and NDP will hold a one-seat advantage.

If, however, the speaker is selected from the Liberals or New Democrats, the Liberals will have to rely on some support from the left-leaning Quebec nationalist Bloc Quebecois.

"Parliament is about to get a big dose of new energy, my friends," NDP leader Jack Layton told supporters. "Working people and progressive Canadians have a stronger voice than they have had in a decade."

For nearly a decade, neo-conservative politicians and media commentators have said a "united right" could sweep Canada and end the century-long dominance of the Liberals.

Instead, voting results showed, centrist supporters of conservative parties switched to the Liberals, rather than give the neo-conservatives a chance to implement their decentralist political agenda.

The Conservatives ran on pledges to force Supreme Court of Canada nominees to face parliamentary committees that would examine their views. They also opposed decriminalising marijuana and same-sex marriages, and were on record as wanting to at least partly dismantle the country's Medicare system, which provides universal healthcare for all Canadians.

They supported the Bush administration's war in Iraq and wanted more economic integration, including a customs union, between the U.S. and Canada.

Polls taken throughout the campaign showed the Conservatives and Liberals each tied with about a third of the vote, the New Democrats with about 15 percent, 10 percent for the separatist Bloc Quebeciois, and about 5 percent for the Greens and other minor parties.

However, on election night, the Liberals took 36 percent of the vote. The Conservatives won just under 30 percent, and the New Democrats picked up about 15 percent.

For the first time, the national Green Party won enough votes to qualify for annual federal funding, which will likely work out to about a million dollars per year.

Conservative Stephen Harper, who midway through the election mused that his party could win a clear majority of lower house seats and was expected by most pundits to win at least a minority, told supporters on election night: "Mr. Martin has been given a mandate, but it is a modest mandate. We, the loyal opposition, will continue to hold them accountable."

Several factors contributed to stopping the Conservatives. The Liberals went into the campaign burdened by several scandals, the Conservatives attempted to portray themselves as a more centrist party, and Canadians seemed to feel it was time for a change.

However, media interviews with several Conservative MPs who opposed gay rights, legal abortions, official French-English bilingualism and advocated the watering down of the country's Charter of Rights and Freedoms worried middle-of-the-road voters. Harper's allegation that Prime Minister Martin and the Liberals "supported" child pornography was seen as an unfair accusation by many voters.

In the latter half of the campaign, the Liberals ran a series of advertisements accusing the Conservatives of wanting to use Medicare money to pay for military equipment to aid Bush in Iraq. The Liberals were able to convince many voters that Harper had a secret anti-gay, anti-choice social agenda and wanted to bring in a for-profit healthcare system.

Conservative leader Harper mused that the centre of power in the country would, under his government, swing from centrist Ontario to the more conservative western part of the country.

"We will keep up the fight to make sure that some day the voice of the West will be heard in the corridors of power," Harper said after the results were announced.

Harper also signaled that he would not try to bring down the fragile government.

"Canada has known minority governments before and at all times Canadians expect and deserve stability and certainty and we as an opposition will act accordingly."

Canadian minority governments, which since 1960 have always been Liberal-New Democrat, tend to last about two years and have brought in Medicare, a national flag, the country's national housing program, and other reforms.