Burma's Generals Meeting Quietly With Nobel Prize Dissident

by Larry Jagan

(IPS) BANGKOK -- All eyes are now on whether Burma's military rulers and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi are on the verge of agreeing to work together on the country's political future, after Rangoon announced this week that a National Convention that will draft a new constitution will resume work in May.

The reconvening of the National Convention on May 17 will take place after a nine-year adjournment and has been identified a key step in the South-east Asian country's 'road map' to democratic change.

In the next two weeks, invitation letters will be sent to all participants, including all the political parties, the military commander in charge of the National Convention, Lt. Gen. Thein Sein, announced on domestic television in Burma Tuesday.

But as yet it is unclear what role, if any, the pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her political party, the National League for Democracy, will have in the process. She was first taken in on May 30 last year, after an attack on her and her party in Depayin blamed on pro-government men, and remains under house arrest.

"It is now essential that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and other NLD leaders are released immediately, party offices reopened, and that the NLD and other political parties and groups are able to operate freely," said a diplomat in Rangoon on condition of anonymity.

These are all things that are now likely to happen in the coming weeks, officials in Burma say. "Aung San Suu Kyi will be fully free, able to meet other members of her party, and conduct normal political activities before the National Convention convenes," Burmese Foreign Minister Win Aung told journalists on the Thai island resort of Phuket in February. "The NLD will also be allowed to reopen their offices before the Convention gets underway."

But for this to happen, it seems likely that the regime must have struck a deal with the opposition leader -- or at least feel it is in the process of doing so. "We are working on creating a good atmosphere between us," said Win Aung. "Before we fought, now we talk."

There is no doubt that Burma's rulers have been talking to Aung San Suu Syi while she is still under house arrest.

A delegation of three senior military representatives has been meeting her once a month since December. These are the deputy military intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Kyaw Win -- regarded as close to the top military leader Senior Gen. Than Shwe -- the home minister Col. Tin Hlaing, a supporter of Prime Minister Gen Khin Nyunt, and the military intelligence liaison officer Brig . Gen. Than Tun.

"The talks have been frank and open," according to military intelligence sources. These discussions have ranged from the government's fear that the opposition leader is a pawn of the West and Aung San Suu Kyi's support for sanctions.

The triumvirate is believed to have met her in the past week or so, according to Rangoon-based diplomats.

"There must have been a deal struck during those talks on the NLD's participation in the National Convention," said a senior western diplomat who is responsible for relations with Burma. "It is possible that she also sent a letter to Senior General Than Shwe pledging the NLD's commitment to the government's national reconciliation," he added.

But this is unlikely to be the case unless the government has promised to change the procedural rules of the National Convention and allow a free debate on the principles upon which Burma's new constitution is to be based.

Previously, everything was tightly controlled by the government-appointed committee that oversaw the convention's proceedings. All speeches had to be submitted to the censors and no impromptu interventions from the floor were allowed.

Pro-democracy activists outside Burma have dismissed suggestions that Aung San Suu Kyi has done a deal with the regime.

What is certain is that she is unlikely to have agreed to anything without meeting the rest of the NLD's central executive committee, several of whom are still under house arrest. "As yet we have not met our leader," said one of NLD's leaders who were released late last year. "I really wish we had; we are desperate to see her," he said.

But a secret meeting between Aung San Suu Kyi and some of the other NLD leaders has indeed taken place, according to an Asian diplomat who closely follows developments in Burma. This of course does not necessarily mean a deal has actually been done at this stage - just that the pro-democracy leader is seriously considering a major compromise with the regime.

If this is the case, the next steps would certainly involve a meeting with the rest of the NLD leadership and probably a meeting with Gen .Khin Nyunt later to seal any agreement.

The announcement of the reconvening of the convention has caught most Rangoon-based diplomats and seasoned observers by surprise. "The fact that it was announced on local television seems to suggest that it was aimed at the domestic constituency rather than posturing for the international audience," an Asian diplomat in Rangoon told IPS.

"It emphasizes the importance of the National Convention in the national reconciliation process and now means that Aung San Suu Kyi's release is less significant," the diplomat told IPS.

While there have been growing signs in Rangoon of Aung San Suu Kyi's release after the mid-April Water Festival celebrations for the Burmese new year, there has been little evidence that the convention was to about to start its work any time soon.

In fact, Win Aung reportedly told his Thai counterpart, Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai, when they met in February in Phuket that the convention would start in September.

According to UN officials, UN envoy Razali Ismail told Khin Nyunt during his trip to Burma in early March that the international community would find it unacceptable for the convention to start after the May anniversary of Aung San Suu Kyi's detention.

During the retreat of South-east Asian foreign ministers a few weeks ago, Surakiart again pressed Win Aung on convening the convention as soon as possible -- "preferably April" -- and urged the Burmese government to consider releasing Aung San Suu Kyi as soon as possible.

One or both of these are regarded a necessary prerequisite for the next meeting of the 'Bangkok process', planned for the end of April, to take place.

But it seems it may have been the strong urging of the Chinese deputy prime minister, Wu Yi, who has just been to Rangoon, that may have convinced Burma's top ruler Than Shwe to allow the prime minister to take what many hope is the first real step in the government's 'road map' to democracy.