Islamic Worlds Of Sunni, Shiite Move Closer

by Cam McGrath

(IPS) CAIRO -- Grudges last a long time in this part of the world, but two regional giants appear on the verge of putting it all behind them.

"Egypt and Iran have agreed in principle to restore relations," Hassan Abu Taleb, political analyst at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS) told IPS. "I think we will see a push for some kind of official negotiations [for normalization] in the next few months."

Iran severed diplomatic ties with Egypt 25 years ago after Egypt made peace with Israel. It has never forgiven the Cairo government for signing the 1978 Camp David accords. Nor has it forgotten that Egypt provided asylum to Iran's deposed shah following the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Egypt, on the other hand, will not easily forget Iran's hand in attempts to overthrow its government during the 1990s. It accuses Iran of funding Islamic terrorist organizations bent on toppling the Mubarak regime to create an Islamic state.

"Relations between Egypt and Iran have always been under pressure," says Abu Taleb.

But similarities are as striking as the differences. Both countries have populations around 70 million, and a similar religious and cultural heritage.

"Egypt and Iran are two regional powers," says Hassan Nafaa, dean of the political sciences department at Cairo University. "Egypt is a center for Sunni Islam; Iran is the center of Shia Islam. By cooperating they could dilute any differences."

Since the late 1970s the two regional axes have spun in opposite directions. Egypt has pursued a relatively secular, pro-capitalist policy that seeks to liberalize its economy and mediate Arab conflicts. Iran since the Islamic Revolution has been a strict theocracy following an isolationist policy, and never shying from confrontation.

The past few years have seen a thaw in relations between the two countries as Iran's reformists sought to mend ties with Arab nations. An Egyptian diplomat announced in February that both countries had agreed "in principle" to restore full diplomatic ties, but last month's controversial election sweep by Iran's Islamic conservatives appears to have stalled efforts.

"The conservatives are not very enthusiastic about improving relations with Egypt, so any improvement depends largely on the weight of the reformists," Nafaa told IPS. "But Egypt's close relations with the U.S. might be of interest to Iran, because despite their negative image, [the conservatives] do not want to push differences with the U.S. too far."

According to Mohammed Shaker, chairman of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs, any setback is only temporary. "I don't think this will affect plans to restore diplomatic relations. We should expect some movement once things settle."

One obstacle to normalization has already been removed. Tehran city council recently agreed to rename a city street 'Intifada Avenue' as a tribute to the Palestinian uprising. The street was previously named 'Khaled Al-Islambouli Street' in honour of the Islamist who assassinated Egyptian president Anwar Sadat in 1981.

"Of course the issue is bigger than just a street name," said Shaker, "but certainly a street named after the assassin of an Egyptian president was a very flagrant provocation."

Iranian author Amir Taheri said in a recent editorial that Egypt should exercise caution in interpreting the street name change. He said Iranian politicians regularly practice "kitman," political deception in which leaders promise one thing while doing the opposite.

"Almost at the same time that two workmen were taking down the controversial nameplates, a team of Khomeinist dignitaries was inaugurating a symbolic tomb for Al-Islambouli in Tehran's Behesht Zahra cemetery," wrote Taheri. "The tomb, located in the area reserved for the 'hero-martyrs of Islam', is adorned with a large portrait of the assassin."

He said Iran's leadership has used the same tactic for political gain in many instances, most recently to settle international concerns over Iran's alleged nuclear weapons program.

"Will the Egyptians fall for the 'kitman' trick as have the Europeans and others on so many occasions? Perhaps not. After all the Egyptians are local boys and know many of the tricks in our neck of the wood," Taheri said.

Abu Taleb of ACPSS says Egypt would not accept any agreement unless Iran first proves its commitment to security cooperation. The government believes Iran has vital information on Egyptian terrorists who sought haven in Iran. Some may already be in Iranian custody.

"Egypt's biggest concern is security," he said. "It is very important for Iran to reveal all information about the Egyptian members of al-Qaeda and other Islamic extremist groups that went to Iran from Afghanistan [after the Taliban fell] at the end of 2001."

Assuming the two countries work out their political differences, bilateral trade should improve. Yet economists warn against expecting too much.

Bilateral trade did not exceed $23 million in 2002. Egypt's key export to Iran is textiles. It imports modest quantities of carpets, nuts and dried fruits.

"Imports and exports have never been of any significance because the economic structure of the two countries is very similar," says Samir Radwan, managing director of the Cairo-based Economic Research Forum. "Both countries have about the same population, agricultural base and industrialization process, so there is not much comparative advantage in economic exchange."

The possibility of increasing trade is limited, admits Radwan, but there are many opportunities to exploit each other's skilled labor and expertise. Egypt has a robust IT sector with a large pool of skilled labor, while Iranian civic planners are highly regarded.

"Iran has been more or less closed to technology and Egypt can be a bridge for technology expertise that can help reconstruct Iranian industry," Radwan said. "On the other hand, Egypt's tourism industry could benefit from Iran's expertise in urban development around monuments."

According to press reports, Egypt is prepared to invest $500 million in Iran over the next five years. Iran is reportedly planning to build a $200-million textile unit in Egypt and invest an unnamed sum in the tourism sector.

But the Egyptian government may be cautious about Iranian capital.

"Due to the nature of relations over the past few years, there is fear that Iranian capital may come with Iranian fundamentalist ideas," says Radwan. "That's the last thing Egypt wants. It has to be purely economic exchange and not Iran's brand of Islamic fundamentalism."