For Israel, Arafat Is Distraction From Failed Policy

by Peter Hirschberg

His fate is the subject of debate at the United Nations. And, most importantly for him, he is being treated daily to an outpouring of adoration from his own people, who flock to his Ramallah compound to chant their support for him

The man the President of the Palestinian Authority has to thank for his resurrection is none other than Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, who for the last three years has been trying to convince the world, with a fair measure of success, that Arafat is "not relevant." But the decision, in principle, by Sharon and his security cabinet on Sept. 11 following two suicide bombings that killed 15 Israelis to "remove" the Palestinian leader, has again made him the sole relevant figure on the Palestinian political landscape

The decision by senior Israeli ministers, which did not specify a date or a method for removing Arafat, has sparked world condemnation and invited U.S. pressure on Israel not to harm him. It took a U.S. veto to block a United Nations Security Council resolution aimed at ensuring that Israel did not deport or harm the Palestinian leader

Keen to exploit his resurgence, Arafat grabbed the diplomatic initiative, proposing another cease-fire. He said contacts were under way with Hamas and Islamic Jihad and that Israel was "invited" to join the truce

In the West Bank and Gaza, thousands have taken to the streets in a show of support to the man who is the living embodiment of the Palestinian national struggle

Apparently unfazed by the international criticism, Israel's Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, in the most brazen remark so far by a senior Israeli minister on the fate of the Palestinian leader, declared earlier this week that "killing Arafat was one of the options" being considered by the government. "We are trying to eliminate all the heads of terror, and Arafat is one of the heads of terror." Some Israeli officials have tried to explain U.S. opposition to the Israeli cabinet decision as merely tactical, relating to the timing and method of ousting the Palestinian leader

That was not the message delivered by U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell during his visit to Iraq. "The United States does not support either the elimination or the exile of Mr. Arafat...the consequences would not be good ones. I think you can anticipate that there would be rage throughout the Arab world, the Muslim world and in many other parts of the world," he said

Like many Israelis, the Bush administration views Arafat as tainted by terror and as an obstacle to a political settlement, but it cannot afford to stir anger throughout the Middle East as it tries desperately to stabilize the situation in Iraq

Stung by the avalanche of criticism, Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom declared that killing Arafat was "not official Israeli policy." Opposition politicians on the left in Israel have also attacked the cabinet decision, arguing that expelling Arafat would win him support and enable him to travel from one world capital to the next, reporters in tow, championing the Palestinian cause

Some officials say the government is preparing the ground for the ultimate removal of Arafat by softening international public opinion in stages, as it did when it progressively reoccupied much of Palestinian-controlled territory in the West Bank last year

But does Sharon really want to see the back of the Palestinian leader, who he constantly blames for the ongoing violence and the inability to reach a political solution to the conflict? "Sharon doesn't have a peace agenda and so it is comfortable for him to hide behind Arafat," Ali Jarbawi, professor of political science at Bir Zeit University in the West Bank told IPS

If Sharon does ultimately remove Arafat -- maybe after the next big suicide bomb attack f it could make a future political settlement even more remote than seems likely in the current violent climate. It would almost certainly lead to the demise of the Palestinian Authority

Any leader who tried to fill the void in the wake of Israeli action against Arafat would be perceived as a traitor. Mahmoud Abbas, who recently resigned as prime minister after a power struggle with Arafat, warned a few months ago that if Arafat was deported, he would quit immediately. His replacement, the speaker of the Palestinian parliament Ahmed Qureia, would have to do the same

Senior Palestinian Authority official Saeb Erekat who advocates a return to talks with Israel, painted a chilling scenario in which militant groups would rule Palestinian towns and villages if Arafat was killed by Israel, and the Palestinian Authority crumbled. "Probably the first thing they will do is come to my house and shoot me...and kill all Palestinian moderates," he said

Jarbawi says this scenario is "exaggerated," but he agrees that deportation or killing of Arafat would signal the end of the Palestinian Authority. "Arafat is the glue holding the PA together," he says

If Arafat were to go and the Palestinian Authority cease to exist, it could mean the end of the two-state solution to the conflict, which calls for the creation of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza alongside Israel. This has been the basis of all internationally-backed peace plans since Israel conquered the West Bank and Gaza in the 1967 War

An end to the two-state option is viewed by many Israeli Jews as a mortal threat. It would leave Israel ruling over a growing Palestinian population -- still a minority today but with a higher birth rate -- in a single geographic entity. Ultimately, Jews would have to confront a fateful choice: continue ruling over an Arab majority and cease to be a democracy, or extend political rights to all and cease being a Jewish state

"The only thing saving Israel from facing the end of the two-state scenario is the existence of the Palestinian Authority," says Jarbawi. "Removing Arafat would make it clear to the Palestinians that there is no longer a two-state option. And then we can all meet in 20 years time in a single bi-national state."