Bush Uses Iran War Threats To Distract From Mideast Roadblocks

by Franz Schurmann

With American soldiers anxious to go home and anti-American guerilla attacks spreading in both Iraq and Afghanistan, why would Bush be so gung-ho for another war? Iran, after all, is a country of 65 million people (compared to Iraq's 23 million) that swarms with unemployed young men of military draft age. The markets definitely do not like the talk about taking out Iran because of its as of yet un-built nuclear power plant. After having been energized following the United States' proclaimed victory in Iraq, the dollar is again faring listlessly in currency markets.

Just before Bush went to Europe and the Middle East, he twice cancelled meetings intended to get his hawks and doves to agree on regime change or not. Bush's excuse was that both agreed on the goals but not the methods. But now the situation in Iran has worsened, with anti-regime street demonstrations by students, the first in many months.

Part of an explanation for Bush's new war talk is that his image as peacemaker in the Middle East seems to be taking a battering at the hands of both Ariel Sharon and Hamas leader Sheikh Yassin. But a much greater part of the explanation is that since 9/11, Bush has learned some important political truths. He now knows that war unites people and politicians behind their Commander in Chief.

On the other hand, peace lets people and politicians fight with each other, each knowing that their common national abode will not crumble. Rather than being defeated by Sharon and Sheikh Yassin, Bush is using tricks and zigzags to defend and expand American interests.

The tricks consist in saying things that sound one way but mean something else -- in short, bafflegab. The zigzags are steps for peace which turn out to be steps for war or vice versa. The late Richard Nixon was a master zigzagger. A few days before Christmas 1972, he subjected Hanoi to a devastating air attack. Among hawks, hope soared that Nixon, basking in his landslide 1972 re-election victory, would now go for broke. Instead, on Jan. 27, 1973, he watched a peace agreement being signed.

Iran fully knows about the war threats coming from America. Yet suddenly out of nowhere, Iran announced that they have imprisoned some of America's most-hated enemies. They are high-ranking operatives in Al-Qaeda, whom, the Iranians say, they have arrested and imprisoned. They include Suleiman Abu Gaith, the top public relations-man for Osama bin Laden in Al-Qaeda, Sa'ad bin Laden, son of Osama, Mass'aba Al-Zirqawi, who worked for Ayman Al-Zuwahiri, considered a major figure in planning the events of 9/11, and others.

If Bush's warnings about war with Iran were a hostile zig, the response from Tehran was a friendly zag. The Arabic media have given a lot of space to these strange happenings. For one, they give the names of Iranian towns in which those arrested are allegedly imprisoned. Couldn't that be seen as an invitation to pluck up some of them up by helicopter and send them to Guantanamo?

In Iran, no love is lost between Shiites and Sunni fundamentalists. The Middle East has an ancient tradition of trading, of which making deals is the essence. Zig-zags and bafflegab are a part of the trading culture. Bush wants these high-level Al-Qaeda operatives as proof that he has broken the back of those who engineered 9/11. The Iranians in turn want relations with America, not war.

It is not widely known or remembered that another channel between America and Iran has been used for some years. Secret talks have been held in Geneva, where earlier talks between America and China eventually led to diplomatic relations. Now that America is deeply involved in Iraq and is finding Sunni guerrillas quite dangerous, having good relations with Iran's majority Shiites will benefit both sides. And a third channel for both bafflegab and zigzagging is that America's three key Arab allies (Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan) have exceptionally good relations with Iran, especially Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah.

Though Egypt and Iran have no formal relations, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher recently visited Teheran, where he predicted relations will definitely be resumed, though not soon. But nothing will happen until Emperor George lets it happen.

Uppermost in Bush's mind is getting re-elected in November next year. To achieve that, he must give America an economy that lets people pay their bills and engage in consumerist spending. And to do that he has to restore peace and prosperity in the world economy, especially in the oil-rich Middle East.

But at the same time, he must not let American voters forget that war made Americans safe again, a mistake that cost his father a second term. That's where bafflegab and zigzagging are highly useful. If these two tools of empire politics bring about a handover by Iran of the Al-Qaeda operatives to stand trial, then voters will remember the Commander in Chief. And if Iran works to swing around the Iraqi Shiites, then peace has a good chance all over the Middle East, including Israel and Palestine.