2003 Outlook Glum For Palestinians

by N. Janardhan

Tel Aviv has achieved total military reconquest of the West Bank and large parts of the Gaza Strip, is conducting a thriving settlement policy and is faced by an ineffective Palestinian National Authority.

Palestinians have only the hope that a U.S.-backed diplomatic "road map" will be the first step towards political negotiations and eventual statehood.

Despite all their negatives, however, the chances of Palestinians realizing at least some of their objectives in the coming year still seem best since the Oslo agreement, some observers believe.

That 1993 accord had proposed that Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, in return for recognising the Jewish state, would get a country of his own. But Israeli intransigence, wrangling, mutual recrimination and ensuing bloodshed ruined the purported peace process.

However, the latest plan drawn by "The Quartet" -- comprising United States, the United Nations, the European Union and Russia -- prescribes a mechanism to stop the 27-month intifada violence that has claimed about 3,000 lives, mostly Palestinians, and create an independent Palestinian state by 2005.

At the instance of the Israelis, the plan -- approved unofficially by both sides -- will be finalized only after the Jewish state's Jan. 28 elections.

According to Sunday's Jerusalem Post, the latest version of the draft, which has already undergone several changes and been delayed several months, puts the onus on the battered Palestinians to ensure that the road map achieves its objective.

It calls on them to take concrete steps to crack down on violence, including the seizure of illegal weapons from resistance fighters. There is no such stipulation for Israel, which has been systematically murdering top-level Palestinian militants.

The blueprint outlines a three-phased plan for a permanent two-state solution.

Phase one, from January to June 2003, stipulates an "end to terror and violence" in Israel and the Palestinian territories as well as "Palestinian institution-building."

The second phase, from June to December, will be a "transition" period during which a quartet-mediated conference will help establish a Palestinian state with provisional borders.

"Statehood" in phase three will last a year from January 2004, during which both sides would negotiate a final settlement to the thorny issues of borders, settlements, the future of Jerusalem and of Palestinian refugees.

According to Ghassan Al Jashi, political analyst in UAE's Al Itihad daily, the years ahead will certainly see the creation of a Palestinian state despite the continued violence over the past two years.

"Whether or not the contours of that state will match the original expectations of the Palestinians is a matter of conjecture. In all likelihood, the final state will be well below their expectations in terms of territory, but the United States will sooner than later thrust a deal on both the parties," he said in an interview.

Discussing the current push for peace, Jashi said: "The parametre for peace in the region changed considerably after Sept. 11."

"The peace that will prevail in future is not to be viewed just in the context of the Middle East. The United States has a big stake in it now. With peace in the region, Washington would be able to insulate itself from the possibility of future attacks on its own soil," he said.

The mindset of the Palestinians and Israelis is changing too, especially that of the Palestinians.

With a casualty ratio of three-to-one Palestinians to Israelis in the conflict, complete restrictions on freedom and a shattered economy, Palestinians are yearning for an end to violence and restoration of normalcy like they did in the months prior to the Oslo agreement.

Therein lies another danger, says Ali Jaber al Sabah, an independent political analyst in Kuwait. "A majority of the Palestinians were tired and frustrated over what they saw as a hopeless situation and were jubilant when the Oslo agreement was signed. They were willing to give peace a chance," he said in an interview.

"But the Israeli strategy was clear: It began negotiations on every phase of implementing the Oslo agreement by imposing tough demands, and the Palestinians put up resistance," Ali Jaber added.

The United States inevitably came in to break the deadlock and act as mediator, he said. " The end result was simple: Agreements were reached, but they involved Palestinian compromises more than Israeli concessions," Ali Jaber said.

He added: "If anything, on a scale of 1 to 10 --10 being the full realization of Palestinian rights -- Israel 'magnanimously' gave up 2 and the Palestinians surrendered 8. And when it came to actual implementation, Israel fell short of its obligation to give up even 2 and the Palestinians were asked to absorb the entire loss."

There is now every danger that history will repeat itself, he said, adding that Palestinians have little choice but to take the chances in the face of pressure from the big powers, Israel and its own people.

According to chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat, there are currently two opportunities to save the prospects for a two-state solution.

In an article in The New York Times last week, he said: "The quartet must," first, "make a full and internationally monitored Jewish settlement freeze the top priority. Without such a freeze, ongoing settlement construction will only provoke more hostility and undermine any attempts to stop violence."

Second, Erekat said: "Elections in January give Israelis the opportunity to send a message to Palestinians. By electing a leadership committed to evacuating settlements rather than building them, to ending the occupation rather than intensifying it, Israelis can undermine the Palestinian extremists and help bring an end to the horrors of the past two years."

The Palestinian official's conclusion seemed to reflect much of the prevailing Arab mood:

"Israel has a right to peace and security. But if the international community and the Israeli public miss these opportunities, they will have only themselves to blame for the consequences we will all suffer."