Russia Wary Of Another War In Afghanistan

by Sergei Blagov

Russia learned some hard lessons from its unsuccessful war in Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989 -- one that produced some of the same fighters now identified by the United States as enemies -- and Moscow is unwilling to engage its forces outside the former Soviet borders.

Despite verbal statements condemning the terrorist attacks in the United States in the past week, Russia and its Central Asian allies seem reluctant to get directly involved in military action to punish Afghan-based terrorist suspects.

Meantime, Russian President Vladimir Putin assigned his special envoy, the secretary of Russia's presidential Security Council Vladimir Rushailo, to visit the capitals of Central Asia -- a region that Moscow considers as being within its zone of interest.

"Joint approaches and substantive mechanisms of cooperation" are needed to combat international terrorism, Putin said in televised remarks. "I sent Rushailo to Central Asia" to discuss these measures, he said.

Putin also stated that Russia's main partners in fighting terrorism are the United States, the European Union and China.

On Sept. 18, Putin held telephone talks with his Chinese counterpart Jiang Zemin, and both expressed their respective "hard-line position relative to terrorism in all forms," according to the Kremlin press service.

The day before, Putin spoke on the telephone with his Kazakh, Kyrgyz, Tajik and Turkmen counterparts. They agreed to assign a special Russian mission, headed by Rushailo, to discuss multilateral security cooperation and measures to combat international terrorism.

After meeting with Rushailo, Uzbek President Islam Karimov said that his country had not given any promises, had not yet received a U.S. request to use its military bases or air space and had not discussed the issue with the United States, according to Russian RIA news agency.

"I do not know where this rumor came from," Karimov told Russian RTR television.

Earlier in the week, Uzbekistan said it would consider lending its military bases to U.S. forces for the deployment of its military forces and staging strikes in neighboring Afghanistan.

Russia and Central Asia are now "on the front line to combat terrorism," Rushailo announced in Kazakh's capital Almaty on Sept. 18. According to the Russian official news agency RIA, Rushailo also suggested urgent talks to discuss measures "to boost efficiency of the Collective Security military forces."

In January 2000, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) floated a program to fight terrorism and extremism, including the formation of a joint anti-terrorist center to combat extremism throughout the CIS.

The Central Asian states -- the six post-Soviet nations make up the Collective Security Treaty of the CIS -- have tried to band together to face a perceived common enemy.

In May 1998, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan formed a "troika" with Russia to fight fundamentalism and Wahabism, a conservative brand of Sunni Islam that they said threatened Central Asia and Russia's North Caucasus.

The leaders of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have accused neighboring Afghanistan of hosting underground centers that train Islamists, who then disturb peace in their states.

In August 2000, the presidents of Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan joined forces to combat terrorism, political and religious extremism and cross-border organized crime.

In October, the presidents of Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Belarus and Armenia signed an agreement on the status of the Collective Security military forces to be assembled in case of need by member states.

On top of these agreements, Russia and Central Asian governments are watching the situation in the region closely, and with anxiety.

On Sept. 16 Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov told journalists in Moscow that Russia had put its 201st division in Tajikistan on "full military alert due to ongoing developments in the region."

The Kremlin also sent Russian chief of staff Anatoly Kvashnin to Dushanbe, Tajikistan to meet with President Emonali Rakhmonov and to inspect the 201st division.

Still, Russian forces in Tajikistan will not take part in military action, Kvashnin was quoted as saying by Itar-TASS news agency.

Tajikistan's position has been far from consistent so far. Last week, Tajik Prime Minister Akil Akilov said that his government would be willing to consider a U.S. request to provide air corridors for possible strikes on Afghanistan.

However, following consultations with Moscow, Tajikistan backtracked. The country's foreign ministry dismissed media reports that U.S. anti- terrorist operations could be launched from Tajik territory. Tajik FM spokesman Igor Sattarov said, "these rumors were groundless."

Russia has 25,000 troops stationed in Tajikistan, which borders Afghanistan and is one of the few countries from which an offensive could be launched.

Moscow used Tajikistan in 1979 to launch an ill-fated 10-year occupation of Afghanistan. The 201st division is believed to be the main fighting force of the would-be Collective Security forces.

Rushailo also arrived in Dushanbe to meet Rakhmonov and discuss cooperation with the Northern Alliance of Afghanistan, which has been fighting the Taliban rulers of Afghanistan.

Rushailo made it clear that Moscow and its Central Asian allies "do not want the Taliban to control Afghanistan because of their possible further advance."

Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said in Washington that Russia views the offering of military bases of Central Asian nations to the U.S. military their "internal affair."

Growing tensions in Central Asia have humanitarian dimensions as well. The leaders of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have voiced fears that U.S. strikes on Afghanistan could prompt a massive refugee exodus into neighboring countries.

But Kazakh Deputy Prime Minister Imanghali Asmagambetov approved a plan to receive refugees from Afghanistan, mainly those belonging to ethnic Kazakh minority.

Even authoritarian Turkmenistan seems to be following Moscow's cautious approach, despite earlier claims otherwise. Turkmenistan will not allow the use its military bases or territory for anti-terrorist operation, a foreign ministry said this week, and it has not been received a formal request on this.