Without U.S., Kyoto Protocol Diplomacy Enters New Phase

by Danielle Knight

Washington, which rejected the 1997 Kyoto Protocol after President George W. Bush called it "fatally flawed," was sidelined during negotiations in Bonn, Germany, that led to the July 23 agreement on the rules for implementing the pact.

"This is not the end of a process, but rather the beginning of the next campaign," says Nathalie Eddy, a climate campaigner with Greenpeace International.

Alden Meyer, director of government relations at the Union of Concerned Scientists, says that in the United States his group would now turn its "attention to winning meaningful domestic policies to attack the global warming threat."

Such policies, he says, include higher fuel efficiency standards for cars and light trucks, binding limits on carbon dioxide emissions from power plants, and requirements that a steadily increasing share of U.S. electricity come from clean renewable energy sources such as wind and solar energy.

After agreement was reached at the ongoing climate talks in Bonn, Japan, Europe and Canada indicated that they would seek ratification of the Kyoto pact next year or sooner.

At least 55 nations, including countries that account for at least 55 percent of the industrialized world's 1990 level of carbon dioxide emissions, must ratify the agreement for it to be become binding. Without U.S. participation, ratification hinges on Japan's support of the treaty.

The accord, named after the Japanese city where it was drawn up, calls for the 38 industrialized nations to reduce, by 2012, their combined annual greenhouse gas emissions to an average of 5.2 percent below their 1990 levels.

For example, forested nations such as Canada, Russia and Japan won concessions from the European Union to be able use their carbon-absorbing forests to lower their emissions reduction targets.

According to some estimates, credits for forests would drop Japan's emissions target to 2 percent below 1990 levels. Without the offset, the figure would have been 6 percent.

A large sticking point during the negotiations was how much to penalize countries that miss their targets. Japan wanted a painless system, but Europe eventually won out with its proposal that countries that miss their targets by 2012 would have to reduce more carbon dioxide than other nations in the ensuing years.

For every ton of gas that a country emits over its target, it will be required to reduce an additional 1.3 tons during the Protocol's second commitment period, which starts in 2013.

A special climate change fund and a fund for least developed countries were also created under the agreement. They are intended to help developing countries adapt to climate change impacts, obtain clean technologies, and limit their emissions.

The negotiations also solidified the rules of the Clean Development Mechanism, through which industrialized nations can receive credit for investing in climate-friendly projects in developing countries. The rules specify that energy efficiency, renewable energy, and "forest sink" projects can qualify for the Mechanism.

The talks also addressed the international emissions trading regime, which enable developed countries to buy and sell emissions credits among themselves.

While the deal is weaker than environmentalists had hoped, many praised the Protocol as a positive step toward reducing emissions.

Calling the agreement a "geopolitical earthquake," Jennifer Morgan, director of the climate change campaign at the World Wildlife Fund, said, "In the battle against global warming, this first small step is a giant leap for humanity and for the future of our planet."

But according to calculations by Greenpeace, the rules agreed at the Bonn talks are really "loopholes" that will allow business to continue as usual.

"Assuming the United States comes on board, fossil fuel and greenhouse gas emissions from developed countries will rise by 0.3 percent by 2010 from 1990 levels, says Malte Meinshousen, a Greenpeace climate campaigner.

If the United States -- which produces about one-quarter of the world's total emissions -- is left out of the equation, the environmental group estimates that emissions could rise by 2.5 percent by 2010.

The group pledged to press for much bigger emissions cuts after the first reduction commitment period ended in 2012.

Others groups argue that even if Kyoto is a weak treaty, the announcement sends a strong signal to industry to begin investing in measures that cut carbon dioxide pollution.

Meyer, with the Union of Concerned Scientists, says the newly established rules of the treaty may prompt U.S. companies to start pressuring the Bush administration to join the Protocol.

U.S. companies, he says, will not long accept being "left on the sidelines," as their competitors in Europe and Japan take advantage of the market opportunities for clean technology exports created by the Kyoto Protocol.

"I am convinced that the United States will eventually join the rest of the world in ratifying and implementing the Kyoto treaty," says Meyer.