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Middle East Arab World Faces Revolt

by Ian Urbina

Arab leaders are in a precarious position
As predicted, the recent Arab summit closed with strong words and weak actions. But while Arab solidarity was lacking at the conference table in Cairo, it is intensifying in street protests across the Middle East. If the United States hopes to promote stability in the region, it can not afford to ignore the growing disconnect between Arab leaders and citizens.

Arab representatives signed a pronouncement scolding Israel for its brutality. They also endorsed the Oslo process, even though back home thousands are protesting it. Increasingly, Arab leaders are in a precarious position. They lack international leverage but face strong domestic pressure to respond to Israel's recent aggression.

Military action is not an option. The Israeli army is stronger than the combined forces of its Arab neighbors. An oil embargo would also backfire. The U.S. can easily draw from its large reserves, and without a second superpower contending for influence in the region, Arab leaders depend entirely on the United States for military and financial assistance. The Gulf war was costly and the large oil-producing countries desperately need their export revenue.

But the popular protests are growing. The demonstrations are not just against the killing of Palestinians but also against the U.S. -brokered peace negotiations. Though most Arabs hope for peace with Israel, they see the Oslo process as unworkable. Even if the problems of Jerusalem, borders and refugees are surmounted, Oslo would leave Palestine without ultimate control of its water and electricity. The Palestinian territory offered in Oslo will be entirely criss-crossed by Israeli roads and military checkpoints, making free internal travel impossible. Land given back in this form has no more value than a stolen bill returned in a hundred pieces.


Regimes may use violently repression
Arab demonstrators are also frustrated with the repression by their own governments. In a region run by Kings and dictators, where corruption and brutal intelligence services are the norm, these feelings are certainly justifiable. Protesters are questioning who is calling the shots -- the U.S. or Arab leaders. State repression of this discontent will simply channel it underground. This could mean more civil unrest and more USS Coles.

Egypt, the second largest recipient of U.S. aid behind Israel, has seen almost continual turmoil. Protests at Cairo University have turned out over 10,000 students. Riot police have responded forcefully and are maintaining a semi-permanent presence to prevent the protesters from leaving the campus. Syrian demonstrators in Damascus attacked the U.S. embassy. In Tehran, 4,000 students marched to the UN office and showered it with rocks. At the Lebanese-Israeli border, thousands of Palestinian refugees protested. Two were shot by Israeli police. In Beirut, the Egyptian embassy was pelted with eggs as protesters carried signs reading: No to the peace of Kings and Presidents. Yes to the popular movement.

Events have not been limited to street confrontations. Citizens in Tunis and Sanaa have been lining up to donate blood for Palestine. Egyptian housewives are now boycotting American produce. In the Gulf, one satellite TV station raised $22 million in a one-day telethon last week to help in Palestinian relief.

Curtailing popular frustration is going to be difficult. Though the state has tried to control news in these countries, satellite television brings the conflict directly to Arab living rooms with 24-hour footage of the clear disparities between stone-throwing teenagers and helicopter gunships. Many student protesters have University-based Internet access and are keeping abreast of events even ahead of government officials.

The Oslo process must be repaired or replaced. If Arab regimes are left no alternative but to support it, they will have to violently repress their own populations as well. The U.S. can not function both as friend of Israel and the honest broker of peace. Israel currently receives one fifth of all U.S. foreign aid: $3 billion annually.

International law, embodied in countless UN resolutions, points the way to a just and lasting peace. The U.S. should listen to the message of the protesters and stop obstructing the will of the international community.


MERIP is a Washington DC-based think tank which specializes in news and analysis on the Middle East and produces a monthly journal called the Middle East Report. Founded in 1971, MERIP is a non-profit, non-governmental organization based in Washington, DC., and has no links to any religious, educational or political organizations in the U.S. or elsewhere.

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Albion Monitor October 30, 2000 (http://www.monitor.net/monitor)

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