Pentagon Auctions The Presidency

by Alexander Cockburn

We are in the climactic moments of the 2000 auction. In mid-August, Frank Gaffney Jr., a Defense Department official in the Reagan years, relayed the Praetorians' reserve price on the imperial throne: "A nation with a projected $1.9 trillion budget surplus can afford consistently to allocate a minimum of 4 percent of its gross domestic product to ensure its security."

Already on July 21, Adm. Jay Johnson had said, as he stepped down from his post as the Navy's top officer, that national security requires a defense expenditure of 4 percent of GDP. On Aug. 16, Gen. James Jones, Commandant of the Marine Corps, used the occasion of an interview with Defense Daily to call for a "gradual ramp up" in defense spending "to about 4 or 4.5 percent of the U.S. gross domestic product." Two days after Jones' comments, Gen. Gordon Sullivan, former Army Chief of Staff and now president of the 100,000-strong Association of the U.S. Army, confirmed the Praetorians' floor demand: "We must prepare for the future of the security of our nation. ... We should set the marker at 4 percent."

The Praetorians have avoided spelling out what 4 percent actually means in dollar terms. The latest figures from the Office of Management and Budget project GDP at $10.9 trillion in 2002, rising to $13.9 trillion in 2007. So, a military budget set at 4 percent of GDP in 2002 would amount to $438 billion, and in 2007, $558 billion. This year's budgetary tribute to the Praetorians is just on $300 billion. The combined spending of all putative foes of the United States -- Russia, China and our old friends the rogue states, including: Iran, Syria, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, Serbia, Cuba and Sudan -- amounts to a little over $100 billion.

It is not well understood that though the number of ships, planes and troops available to guard the nation has declined sharply, the actual flow of dollars into the pockets of the Praetorians and their commercial partners has remained at cold war levels. It is true that in the immediate aftermath of the cold war, U.S. military spending under George Bush I diminished slightly. Clinton reversed this trend with enough brio to allow Gore, speaking to the Veterans of Foreign Wars in the 1996 campaign, to declare that the Democratic bid to the Praetorians that year was far superior to that of the Republicans.

In his offer to the Praetorians this year, George W. Bush has bid Star Wars, plus a pay raise for the armed forces. This is scarcely enough. The Praetorians know well that the missile defense scheme endorsed by Bush is a fantasy and that missile defense spending has been more or less constant since the early sixties. The appeal of a pay raise from a Republican emperor is undercut by lavish disbursements, such as the recent 10 percent raise enacted by Emperor Clinton, who further solidified the loyalty of the senior officer class by smoothing out wrinkles in the practice of double dipping. "There are retired colonels in this building," a Pentagon number cruncher remarked recently, "who are taking home $200,000 a year." "I'm proud," Gore told the VFW five days after he kissed Tipper, "that we won the largest military pay increase in twenty years."

The Praetorians are licking their lips at the prospect of a delightful bidding war stretching over the presidential debates. We can look forward to Joe Lieberman chastising Dick Cheney for his temerity, as President Bush's Defense Secretary, in cutting the military budget and even canceling such egregious boondoggles as the A-12 Stealth fighter.

There may be a deeper reason for the 4 percent solution. The military's share of the economy has been going down. There are no convincing external enemies, and it's been getting harder to claim a prime role for military R&D in setting the agenda for technological innovation. Thanks to Hollywood and our militarist heritage, the Pentagon still has a powerful cultural hold. But as the Pentagon's weight in the overall economy diminishes, so, too, does the clout of the Praetorians, and there may come a day when their bluff is called.

For now, let us await the next bid, probably against a backdrop of October surprises -- saving Montenegro from Slobo, or settling accounts one more time with Saddam. Oh, and by the way, if the Praetorians get their 4 percent out of a bidding war between Gore and Bush, Pentagon analyst Franklin Spinney accurately remarks, "The 4 percent defense solution ... would be tantamount to a declaration of total war on Social Security and Medicare in the following decade. Such a war could be justified only if our nation's survival were at stake."