Worldwide Tobacco Treaty in Two Years?

by Mark Lobel

This would mean that the Convention, which is expected to set out rules and regulations to govern the global use of tobacco and tobacco products, would be adopted somewhat earlier than the previous target of May 2003.

Douglas Bettcher told IPS, "Judging by the political momentum and feedback received from countries at the World Health Assembly in May of this year, the Convention could be adopted a year earlier."

The FCTC negotiation process, part of the WHO's "Tobacco Free Initiative," was set in motion in Geneva on May 24 last year, when a record 50 nations pledged financial and political support at the annual World Health Assembly. Partnered by non-governmental organizations and other international organizations, WHO members began work on its first multilaterally negotiated health treaty.

An FCTC working group later submitted a draft catalog, (a "broad menu of options" rather than draft treaty text), for consideration at this year's Assembly. At the meeting, a resolution formally launching the political negotiations to commence in October 2000, was unanimously adopted.

Bettcher outlined to IPS the main objectives of the Convention.

"Tobacco is a regulatory conundrum, a no man's land. Transparency is needed. Consumers need to know what are its 4,000 constituents, of which approximately 60 are carcinogens. A regulatory environment is needed that ensures the control, not prohibition, of tobacco."

"It will become the prime killer, overtaking malaria. It will be the number-one determinant of mortality in the 2020s," Bettcher said.

"Public health is our prime motive, as identified by the WHO members. Even the president and minister of health in Brazil -- the world's major producer and exporter of tobacco -- have been positive on tobacco control," he added.

However, representatives of Zimbabwe and Malawi have begun protesting the initiative. Speaking this week at the UN Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC), B. Chidyausiku (Zimbabwe) was concerned that the Convention posed a serious social and economic threat to his country. The crop contributed 38 percent of physical trade in 1999 and is currently Zimbabwe's largest employer of labor.

Chidyausiku also took issue with a statement in the UN secretary-general's report "Ad Hoc Inter-Agency Task Force on Tobacco Control" (which cites a World Bank report), that "the negative effects of tobacco control on employment have been greatly overstated." Chidyausiku said that this comment "trivialized a grave issue."

Bettcher said that no offense was intended by the report, and acknowledges that countries reliant on tobacco production, like Zimbabwe and Malawi, may need support in the future for other economic development options.

However, he does not agree that in the near future the Convention would affect tobacco producers, as it would only begin by reducing any growth in tobacco demand, before hindering current levels of production. Even if the Convention were implemented immediately, Bettcher believes there is such a high demand for tobacco that any changes would move "like a snail in a marathon."

A WHO briefing document entitled "The Framework Convention on Tobacco Control" does concede that some countries will suffer.

"Falling employment in the tobacco industry will be offset by increases in employment in other industries. However, in the medium term, for countries which rely heavily on tobacco exports (i.e. the economy is a net exporter of tobacco), economic/agricultural diversification will likely entail employment losses," the report states.

It adds: "The FCTC will probably be the first instrument seeking global support for tobacco farmers."

Emmanuel Guindon, an economist for the "Tobacco Free Initiative," told IPS that the problem could be solved through other economic activities that could replace tobacco production. He also stressed the importance of examining all determinants of the supply of tobacco leaves and its related employment, including the relative impact of mechanization on employment. There are also suggestions available for alternative uses for nicotine.

Yusuf Juwayeyi of Malawi, where the tobacco industry employs 18 percent of the national population, found that the Task Force report grossly underestimated the employment aspect. He said that studies on crop diversification in his country, looking at alternatives to tobacco, had not yet come up with a replacement. He said it would be extremely hasty to start formal negotiations (set for October) before alternatives were found.

Though these matters remain unresolved, there has been no large opposition to the negotiations. Members will convene in Geneva on Oct. 16, four days after the WHO's first-ever open public-health hearings, an idea initiated by WHO Director-General Gro Harlem Brundtland last March. At the hearings the public health community, tobacco industry, farmers and any other group with a material interest in the Framework Convention will make their case before the public.

Both meetings in Geneva will prove the greatest test for the Convention so far. The final major event to take place in advance of these talks will be the 11th World Conference on Tobacco or Health in Chicago this August. Over 3,500 professionals concerned with the global epidemic of diseases from tobacco use are expected to attend.

At the conference, a 512-page document on the economics of tobacco control will be released. It will support the World Bank's findings, published last year, that over two-thirds of smokers take up the habit as children or teenagers.