Economic, Terrorism Fears Grow in Philippines

by Marites Sison

Cab drivers have been hit especially hard by the recent series of bombings in the Philippines, he says, not to mention the still-unresolved hostage crisis in the southern island of Mindanao.

Frank says his only consolation is that next month, he will be leaving for Saudi Arabia to join other contract workers who have been promised wages more than double the current daily minimum of 250 pesos ($6).

He has been to the Middle East before as a warehouse worker, and now wants to go back to work overseas.

"The government of Erap (the nickname of President Joseph Estrada) is hopeless. The price of everything is high -- gas, food, medicine. I've used up my savings. I pity my family," he says.

Like Frank, many other Filipinos are gloomy about where the Philippines is headed under the leadership of Estrada, a B-movie star-turned politician who was elected president in 1998.

Barely two years into his presidency, Estrada is already feeling the pinch from nearly all sectors of society -- from the poor who are believed to have voted him into office, the influential Roman Catholic Church, the politically-active middle class, businessmen, members of the opposition, and reactivated rebel groups.

Filipinos, according to businessman Raul Concepcion, "are as downhearted now as they were back in 1989" when rebel military soldiers launched a failed but bloody coup against then-president Corazon Aquino.

"There is a rising disenchantment in Pres. Estrada's ability to govern," Concepcion told business reporters here recently. "The series of events in the past months has created a little panic and a sense of frustration among businessmen."

The problem "goes beyond economic fundamentals," he added. "It's now about confidence in the presidency but sadly, the government is not addressing this."

In May, Manila Archbishop Jaime Cardinal Sin, the outspoken prelate who helped rally support for the 1986 "People Power Revolution" that ousted the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos, issued a pastoral letter lamenting a "vacuum of leadership" in government.

Sin issued the letter following a series of bombings and other terrorist acts in and outside the capital Manila.

The Easter Sunday abduction occurred weeks after Abu Sayyaf, which seeks an independent Islamic state in the south, kidnapped 30 Filipinos in Jolo, Sulu province in Mindanao on March 20. Among the hostages were a Catholic parish priest and 17 schoolchildren.

Four days before the Easter Sunday raid, the rebels had beheaded two hostages as a "gift" to Estrada on his 63rd birthday.

The rippling effects of the conflict in the south were fast and furious. On May 25, the peso hit an all-time low, at 43.70 pesos to the dollar. Stock prices hit rock bottom. The exchange rate stabilized at 42 pesos to a dollar this week but businessmen are wagering that the peso will further depreciate against the dollar, as jittery feelings about the economy and the country continue.

At the start of this month, government economists glumly announced that the country's growth rate for the first quarter of 2000 stood at 3.4 percent, short of its 3.8 percent target.

Amid the insurgency problems in agriculture-rich Mindanao, the sluggish growth of the economy and the weakening of the peso, economic analysts are not optimistic of better growth figures for the second quarter.

"There is no sense of urgency on the part of our economic bodies unlike our neighbors who are more aggressive, which is why they have recovered (from the Asian currency crisis) faster than us," Concepcion said.

"What we need is a decisive and strong leader," said political columnist Amando Doronila, writing in the English-language daily Philippine Daily Inquirer.

The Muslim rebel attacks have by far been the boldest affront to Estrada, who has long fancied himself as the "macho president," a take-off from his on-screen image as a swashbuckling hero.

Political analysts here say, however, that Estrada had it coming. Estrada had won by popular vote in the May 1998 elections, largely on a poverty-alleviation platform.

However, the crisis of confidence in his ability to govern came early, triggered by charges of cronyism involving former associates of Marcos, a lack of work ethic, indecisive leadership, reports of womanizing, corruption scandals involving members of his family and worsening incidence of poverty (which now stands at nearly half of the 75 million population.)

Media reports that he made policy decisions while inebriated in the wee hours of the morning further eroded the public's support, and made the butt of jokes among many.

Estrada's popularity was also hit by the decision of oil companies to raise petroleum prices in several instances, because this move raised the prices of basic fare and commodities.

Critics say that these days, Estrada's Filipino campaign slogan "Erap para sa mahirap," which means "Erap for the poor," should instead read "Erap para humirap" -- or "Erap to become poor."

Last month, Estrada's spokesmen lashed out at Time magazine for running a critical story and an unflattering cover of the president as an actor playing the part of a buffoon.

Presidential spokesman Ricardo Puno asked the public to boycott the magazine, but the issue has since sold out at newsstands.

Meantime, at least three opposition senators have called for Estrada's resignation, even though there does not appear to be a groundswell of support for his ouster. Leaflets urging Estrada to resign and be succeeded by his vice president, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, have been circulated in military camps.

Despite the media discussion about the drift in government and public disenchantment, some Filipinos say they are too busy with their own lives. "We're all preoccupied with work. We're just trying our best to survive," says one middle-class housewife.