End of Road for McCain -- or the Beginning?

by Steve Chapman

It could be that McCain's fabled temper and love of lost causes got the best of him. Or it could be he's crazy like a fox.

By the time McCain began denouncing Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell, his campaign was already taking on water. What he clearly hoped was that by disassociating himself from the GOP's right wing, he would energize non-Republicans across the country to turn out for him in numbers sufficient to swamp the old guard and win him the nomination. That didn't happen. On Super Tuesday, he was beaten so soundly that the only remaining question was when he would quit the race.

But all along, his strategy had a hidden virtue: It might succeed even if it failed. McCain was running first for the Republican nomination -- but he could be running next for the Reform Party nomination. Nothing he has done would be a handicap if he hopes to claim the mantle of Ross Perot.

In fact, actions he has taken that seem foolhardy for a Republican presidential candidate make perfect sense for a maverick preparing to bolt the party. If you're a loyal Republican, you might not want to demand that your party's front-runner "tell his sleazy Texas buddies to stop these negative ads and take their money back to Texas where it belongs, and don't try to corrupt American politics with your money." You might not want to antagonize Christian conservatives, who are one of the GOP's most loyal blocs. You might not want to suggest that you are Luke Skywalker and Bush is Darth Vader.

But if you're giving serious thought to a third party race, things look different. In that case, you would want to do all these things in an effort to 1) inflict as much damage as possible on one of your general election opponents and 2) appeal to people outside the party who dislike much of what the GOP stands for.

Even in defeat, McCain didn't sound the least bit conciliatory. Addressing supporters in Los Angeles, he said, "I want to assure you all that our crusade continues tonight, tomorrow, the next day, the day after that and for as long as it takes to restore America's confidence and pride in the practice and institutions of our great democracy. We will never give up this mission."

McCain has insisted all along that he has no interest in leaving the GOP. But no one running in a Republican primary could afford to say anything else. Pat Buchanan used to say the same thing. And it's not hard to think of reasons why McCain might change his mind.

If he has assembled "a coalition never seen before in the history of American politics," as he proclaimed the other day, why should he let that coalition be stymied by the moneyed establishment of the Republican party? If he believes "America needs and wants a thorough reform of the way we conduct our nation's business," why should he expect that reform to come from either of the two major parties that are responsible for the status quo? If what he's leading is not a mere campaign but a holy crusade, how can he justify tamely giving up and returning to business as usual in Washington?

Ever since he entered the race, McCain has sounded like a Perot impersonator, with his endless railing against special interests, his zealotry about campaign finance reform, and his vagueness about a wide range of substantive policy issues. Republican voters as well as officeholders clearly harbor doubts about whether he is really one of them. It would require no contortions for McCain to announce that he is leaving his party because his party has already left him.

His appeal to Reform disciples is obvious. Unlike Pat Buchanan, he's actually been elected to office, has no history of vocal bigotry and has proven his appeal to voters across the country. His defense of free trade would be a bit awkward for the protectionist Perotistas, but it probably wouldn't be disqualifying. And, in contrast to Buchanan, it's not utterly impossible to imagine McCain catching fire with the electorate and finishing ahead of one of the two major party nominees -- or even winning outright.

McCain would be risking his political future by bolting the GOP. But he may be forced to the conclusion that he and the Reform Party are meant for each other. For a guy who says his campaign is something different, there is no better way to prove it.